The best indicator for USD/HKD
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/HKD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where USD/HKD stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Stochastic
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/HKD over ~24.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.0% CAGR.
USD/HKD on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/HKD — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 0.0% | 0.16 | -1.0% | 45.5% | 11 | 0.0% |
| 2 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope | Weekly | 0.0% | 0.14 | -0.6% | 33.3% | 9 | 0.0% |
| 3 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 0.0% | 0.06 | -0.7% | 50.0% | 10 | -0.0% |
| 4 | Murrey Math Lines | Weekly | 0.0% | 0.0 | -0.8% | 35.7% | 14 | -0.0% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | -0.0% | -0.01 | -1.7% | 50.0% | 16 | -0.0% |
| 6 | Keltner Mean-Reversion | Daily | -0.0% | -0.05 | -3.7% | 18.8% | 32 | -0.0% |
| 7 | SMC: Break of Structure | Weekly | -0.1% | -0.1 | -2.7% | 22.2% | 9 | -0.1% |
| 8 | SMC: Change of Character | Weekly | -0.0% | -0.06 | -2.3% | 26.7% | 15 | -0.1% |
| 9 | T3 20/80 Cross | Weekly | -0.0% | -0.12 | -1.7% | 25.0% | 8 | -0.1% |
| 10 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Weekly | -0.0% | -0.08 | -1.7% | 33.3% | 18 | -0.1% |
| 11 | Fibonacci Bands | Weekly | -0.0% | -0.08 | -1.7% | 33.3% | 18 | -0.1% |
| 12 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep | Weekly | -0.0% | -0.08 | -2.3% | 36.4% | 22 | -0.1% |
| 13 | Stochastic Momentum Index | Weekly | -0.0% | -0.16 | -1.5% | 30.0% | 10 | -0.1% |
| 14 | Donchian 100 Break | Daily | -0.1% | -0.21 | -3.8% | 44.4% | 9 | -0.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on USD/HKD lost money across the out-of-sample window in 585 of 585 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For USD/HKD, Stochastic on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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