The best indicator for USD/CNY
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/CNY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where USD/CNY stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
ADX Strong Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/CNY over ~24.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.0% CAGR.
USD/CNY on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/CNY — beating buy-and-hold by 1.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADX Strong Trend ✓ | Daily | 1.2% | 0.63 | -9.2% | 23.8% | 80 | 2.0% |
| 2 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.59 | -15.3% | 19.0% | 121 | 2.1% |
| 3 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.55 | -13.5% | 19.3% | 109 | 2.0% |
| 4 | Three White Soldiers ✓ | Weekly | 0.9% | 0.45 | -5.9% | 45.5% | 33 | 1.7% |
| 5 | Keltner 10 (x1.5) ✓ | Weekly | 0.5% | 0.44 | -2.0% | 43.8% | 16 | 1.3% |
| 6 | ALMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.43 | -6.4% | 35.1% | 37 | 1.8% |
| 7 | T3 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.0% | 0.4 | -9.4% | 35.1% | 37 | 1.8% |
| 8 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.39 | -24.7% | 15.8% | 171 | 1.9% |
| 9 | Ichimoku (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 0.8% | 0.39 | -5.8% | 27.1% | 48 | 1.7% |
| 10 | Hull MA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 0.7% | 0.39 | -9.2% | 37.3% | 51 | 1.5% |
| 11 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Weekly | 0.8% | 0.39 | -7.2% | 35.5% | 31 | 1.6% |
| 12 | TRIX (15) ✓ | Daily | 0.9% | 0.36 | -10.4% | 25.8% | 62 | 1.7% |
| 13 | Waddah Attar Explosion ✓ | Weekly | 0.5% | 0.36 | -7.4% | 36.6% | 41 | 1.3% |
| 14 | SMA 5/20 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 0.8% | 0.36 | -5.9% | 27.6% | 29 | 1.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/CNY
102 of 534 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/CNY outright. Another 0 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 0 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMA 20/50 Cross | 1 | none needed | 16.95× |
| Bollinger Breakout | 1 | none needed | 12.35× |
| ADX / DMI | 1 | none needed | 28.57× |
| EMA 8/21 Cross | 1 | none needed | 8.33× |
| SMA 20/50 Cross | 1 | none needed | 18.18× |
| SMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | none needed | 15.38× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/CNY, ADX Strong Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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