The best indicator for USD/CHF
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/CHF history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where USD/CHF stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/CHF over ~23.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 7.3% CAGR.
USD/CHF on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/CHF — beating buy-and-hold by 7.2% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.77 | -46.9% | 38.0% | 590 | 7.3% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.71 | -42.5% | 36.9% | 445 | 6.8% |
| 3 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.67 | -25.3% | 34.5% | 284 | 6.5% |
| 4 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 3.5% | 0.54 | -31.2% | 34.5% | 429 | 5.6% |
| 5 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.53 | -37.7% | 25.8% | 306 | 5.4% |
| 6 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.55 | -5.8% | 72.7% | 11 | 3.5% |
| 7 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 1.7% | 0.35 | -25.5% | 34.9% | 172 | 3.8% |
| 8 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 2.0% | 0.32 | -38.1% | 34.7% | 415 | 4.1% |
| 9 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 1.5% | 0.31 | -23.3% | 35.6% | 146 | 3.6% |
| 10 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 1.4% | 0.25 | -41.7% | 31.7% | 328 | 3.5% |
| 11 | Fisher Center-of-Gravity ✓ | Daily | 1.0% | 0.2 | -40.1% | 41.7% | 618 | 3.1% |
| 12 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 1.1% | 0.2 | -29.4% | 30.3% | 251 | 3.2% |
| 13 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 0.6% | 0.17 | -17.8% | 57.1% | 35 | 2.7% |
| 14 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 0.9% | 0.17 | -24.4% | 55.6% | 63 | 3.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on USD/CHF lost money across the out-of-sample window in 568 of 568 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For USD/CHF, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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