The best indicator for USD/CAD
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/CAD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where USD/CAD stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/CAD over ~23.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.3% CAGR.
USD/CAD on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/CAD — beating buy-and-hold by 4.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.74 | -35.2% | 32.5% | 554 | 4.3% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.55 | -34.6% | 34.1% | 440 | 3.1% |
| 3 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.49 | -34.7% | 25.8% | 318 | 2.8% |
| 4 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.39 | -31.6% | 34.1% | 434 | 2.1% |
| 5 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 1.9% | 0.33 | -31.4% | 33.7% | 291 | 1.7% |
| 6 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 1.6% | 0.33 | -24.2% | 29.3% | 167 | 1.4% |
| 7 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.33 | -18.4% | 60.3% | 58 | 2.5% |
| 8 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.3 | -20.0% | 65.1% | 63 | 2.2% |
| 9 | Choppiness Index ✓ | Daily | 0.6% | 0.26 | -10.4% | 39.5% | 43 | 0.4% |
| 10 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 1.4% | 0.25 | -43.3% | 30.8% | 315 | 1.2% |
| 11 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.25 | -21.9% | 60.0% | 20 | 1.6% |
| 12 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.25 | -21.9% | 60.0% | 20 | 1.6% |
| 13 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.24 | -33.3% | 30.9% | 434 | 1.1% |
| 14 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.24 | -28.2% | 65.1% | 43 | 1.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/CAD
38 of 614 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/CAD outright. Another 23 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 0 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Bands | 1 | 1.17× | 18.27× |
| Donchian Breakout | 1 | none needed | 15.15× |
| CCI | 1 | none needed | 8.87× |
| Parabolic SAR | 1 | none needed | 7.5× |
| Aroon | 1 | none needed | 4.25× |
| Vortex | 1 | none needed | 7.02× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/CAD, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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