The best indicator for USD/BRL
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/BRL history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where USD/BRL stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/BRL over ~21.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 8.0% CAGR.
USD/BRL on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/BRL — beating buy-and-hold by 7.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 10.7% | 0.85 | -43.2% | 37.6% | 580 | 8.0% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 9.8% | 0.79 | -46.9% | 40.0% | 435 | 7.1% |
| 3 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 10.1% | 0.76 | -43.6% | 31.7% | 262 | 7.5% |
| 4 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 8.9% | 0.7 | -29.9% | 36.3% | 295 | 6.2% |
| 5 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 8.9% | 0.7 | -29.9% | 36.3% | 295 | 6.2% |
| 6 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.68 | -30.3% | 35.8% | 299 | 6.1% |
| 7 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.67 | -41.0% | 37.2% | 269 | 6.0% |
| 8 | ADX Strong Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.63 | -16.5% | 43.7% | 71 | 3.5% |
| 9 | Aroon ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.62 | -23.3% | 36.2% | 188 | 5.2% |
| 10 | Aroon Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.62 | -23.3% | 36.2% | 188 | 5.2% |
| 11 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 7.8% | 0.62 | -46.8% | 35.5% | 403 | 5.2% |
| 12 | Impulse MACD | Daily | 5.4% | 0.57 | -27.1% | 34.6% | 283 | 2.7% |
| 13 | Pivot Points (Standard) | Daily | 5.2% | 0.57 | -26.3% | 44.6% | 821 | 2.5% |
| 14 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.56 | -29.1% | 36.8% | 125 | 3.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/BRL
58 of 561 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/BRL outright. Another 67 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 28 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aroon | 2 | none needed | 4.89× |
| Aroon Oscillator | 2 | none needed | 4.89× |
| Vortex (7) | 2 | none needed | 6.32× |
| DeMarker (14) | 2 | none needed | 6.48× |
| SMC: Fair Value Gap | 2 | none needed | 5.53× |
| Vortex | 1 | 1.05× | 6.01× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/BRL, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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