The best indicator for Upstart
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Upstart history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Upstart stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Predictive Ranges
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Upstart over ~5.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 63.6% CAGR.
Upstart on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Daily | 59.3% | 1.04 | -69.2% | 50.0% | 28 | 63.6% |
| 2 | ROC (5) ✓ | Daily | 53.7% | 0.89 | -78.1% | 43.9% | 132 | 57.9% |
| 3 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Daily | 37.4% | 0.85 | -38.0% | 57.7% | 52 | 41.6% |
| 4 | Keltner 50 (x2.0) | Daily | 33.7% | 0.82 | -37.5% | 55.0% | 20 | 38.0% |
| 5 | G-Channel ✓ | Daily | 36.4% | 0.8 | -63.9% | 44.0% | 25 | 40.6% |
| 6 | KAMA 100 Trend | Daily | 42.4% | 0.8 | -66.0% | 40.7% | 27 | 46.6% |
| 7 | KAMA 200 Trend | Daily | 41.3% | 0.79 | -65.6% | 23.8% | 21 | 45.5% |
| 8 | Chop Zone (EMA-34 angle) | Daily | 31.8% | 0.78 | -38.9% | 41.7% | 24 | 36.0% |
| 9 | RSI (7) | Daily | 39.0% | 0.77 | -70.2% | 39.1% | 110 | 43.2% |
| 10 | Williams %R (7) | Daily | 38.9% | 0.77 | -72.5% | 42.7% | 131 | 43.1% |
| 11 | MBFX Timing | Daily | 38.9% | 0.77 | -72.5% | 42.7% | 131 | 43.1% |
| 12 | Trend Magic | Daily | 35.4% | 0.76 | -74.1% | 38.1% | 84 | 39.6% |
| 13 | Gann HiLo Activator | Daily | 37.5% | 0.76 | -77.4% | 39.6% | 106 | 41.7% |
| 14 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Daily | 33.6% | 0.75 | -71.9% | 36.8% | 19 | 37.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Upstart lost money across the out-of-sample window in 285 of 285 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Upstart, Predictive Ranges on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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