The best indicator for Upstart
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Upstart history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Upstart stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Predictive Ranges
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Upstart over ~5.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 60.9% CAGR.
Upstart on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Daily | 63.0% | 1.07 | -69.2% | 50.0% | 28 | 60.9% |
| 2 | ROC (5) ✓ | Daily | 59.4% | 0.93 | -78.1% | 44.4% | 126 | 57.3% |
| 3 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Daily | 38.5% | 0.85 | -38.0% | 55.8% | 52 | 36.4% |
| 4 | KAMA 100 Trend | Daily | 47.3% | 0.85 | -64.5% | 38.5% | 26 | 45.2% |
| 5 | Keltner 50 (x2.0) ✓ | Daily | 35.6% | 0.84 | -37.5% | 55.0% | 20 | 33.6% |
| 6 | G-Channel ✓ | Daily | 39.0% | 0.83 | -63.9% | 45.8% | 24 | 37.0% |
| 7 | RSI (7) ✓ | Daily | 45.3% | 0.82 | -70.2% | 39.6% | 106 | 43.2% |
| 8 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 44.2% | 0.82 | -65.6% | 25.0% | 20 | 42.1% |
| 9 | Trend Magic ✓ | Daily | 40.7% | 0.81 | -74.1% | 39.5% | 81 | 38.6% |
| 10 | Gann HiLo Activator ✓ | Daily | 44.7% | 0.81 | -77.4% | 37.6% | 101 | 42.6% |
| 11 | Volume-Weighted EMA ✓ | Daily | 43.8% | 0.81 | -65.8% | 43.6% | 78 | 41.7% |
| 12 | Chop Zone (EMA-34 angle) ✓ | Daily | 34.2% | 0.81 | -38.9% | 43.5% | 23 | 32.2% |
| 13 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Daily | 38.9% | 0.8 | -71.9% | 36.8% | 19 | 36.8% |
| 14 | Kaufman Adaptive MA ✓ | Daily | 43.4% | 0.8 | -80.1% | 46.8% | 94 | 41.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Upstart lost money across the out-of-sample window in 285 of 285 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Upstart, Predictive Ranges on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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