The best indicator for United Parcel Service (UPS)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real United Parcel Service (UPS) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where United Parcel Service (UPS) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Projection Bands
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for United Parcel Service (UPS) over ~27.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.2% CAGR.
United Parcel Service (UPS) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for United Parcel Service (UPS) — beating buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.64 | -20.3% | 67.9% | 53 | 4.2% |
| 2 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.57 | -15.4% | 100.0% | 18 | 1.4% |
| 3 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.52 | -29.1% | 69.4% | 62 | 3.0% |
| 4 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.5 | -38.5% | 72.0% | 25 | 1.9% |
| 5 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.48 | -42.3% | 90.5% | 21 | 1.9% |
| 6 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.46 | -43.8% | 82.1% | 28 | 2.2% |
| 7 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Weekly | 4.7% | 0.46 | -21.2% | 73.9% | 23 | 0.6% |
| 8 | DeMarker ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.45 | -34.0% | 72.5% | 91 | 1.9% |
| 9 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.45 | -29.7% | 72.7% | 77 | 2.0% |
| 10 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.45 | -28.0% | 71.4% | 63 | 1.3% |
| 11 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.44 | -36.6% | 78.0% | 41 | 1.9% |
| 12 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 5.8% | 0.43 | -44.0% | 88.9% | 18 | 1.8% |
| 13 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.39 | -38.9% | 50.0% | 140 | 0.9% |
| 14 | Order-Flow Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.39 | -31.2% | 88.9% | 18 | -0.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on United Parcel Service (UPS)
49 of 680 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on United Parcel Service (UPS) outright. Another 36 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 45 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarker | 2 | none needed | 3.74× |
| Murrey Math Lines | 2 | none needed | 3.2× |
| Demand Index | 2 | none needed | 3.29× |
| Stochastic RSI | 1 | 1.24× | 2.72× |
| Connors RSI-2 | 1 | 1.63× | 4.03× |
| Projection Bands | 1 | 1.82× | 4.22× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For United Parcel Service (UPS), Projection Bands on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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