The best indicator for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Ulta Beauty (ULTA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
QQE
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) over ~19.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 9.3% CAGR.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 25.5% | 0.79 | -44.1% | 58.3% | 48 | 9.3% |
| 2 | Williams Fractals ✓ | Weekly | 19.3% | 0.73 | -41.3% | 38.9% | 18 | 3.1% |
| 3 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 22.2% | 0.71 | -64.9% | 31.2% | 16 | 5.4% |
| 4 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 21.2% | 0.68 | -65.4% | 22.2% | 18 | 4.5% |
| 5 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 15.3% | 0.67 | -50.8% | 66.0% | 212 | -1.4% |
| 6 | Ultimate Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 13.2% | 0.67 | -37.5% | 80.0% | 15 | -3.5% |
| 7 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Daily | 11.6% | 0.63 | -29.2% | 46.6% | 161 | -5.1% |
| 8 | Volatility Regime (VIX-style) ✓ | Daily | 11.5% | 0.63 | -29.3% | 47.5% | 158 | -5.2% |
| 9 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 14.7% | 0.63 | -46.5% | 63.1% | 111 | -1.5% |
| 10 | Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 17.9% | 0.63 | -64.9% | 58.5% | 53 | 1.7% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 15.3% | 0.62 | -37.8% | 46.3% | 41 | -0.9% |
| 12 | ALMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.9% | 0.62 | -48.9% | 47.4% | 19 | -2.3% |
| 13 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 17.1% | 0.61 | -64.9% | 62.5% | 24 | 0.4% |
| 14 | Price Volume Trend ✓ | Weekly | 15.7% | 0.61 | -50.3% | 55.9% | 34 | -0.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
2 of 593 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Ulta Beauty (ULTA) outright. Another 175 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 284 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intraday Momentum Index | 1 | none needed | 3.62× |
| Ultimate Osc (4,8,16) | 1 | none needed | 3.42× |
| Elder Ray (Bull/Bear Power) | — | 1.83× | 3.49× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | — | 1.25× | 2.78× |
| Ehlers Reflex | — | 1.32× | 3.39× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | — | 1.5× | 2.85× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Ulta Beauty (ULTA), QQE on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More stock
Get alerted when Ulta Beauty’s signal flips
We track Ulta Beauty daily. Its backtested best indicator, QQE (Weekly), is long right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.