The best indicator for Travelers Companies (The) (TRV)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Travelers Companies (The) (TRV) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Travelers Companies (The) (TRV) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Ehlers Cyber Cycle
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Travelers Companies (The) (TRV) over ~50.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.9% CAGR.
Travelers Companies (The) (TRV) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Travelers Companies (The) (TRV) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehlers Cyber Cycle ✓ | Daily | 9.0% | 0.56 | -43.2% | 45.8% | 1314 | -0.9% |
| 2 | Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) ✓ | Daily | 9.8% | 0.54 | -65.4% | 43.1% | 919 | -0.1% |
| 3 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.54 | -33.7% | 86.4% | 44 | -2.9% |
| 4 | Demand Index ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.54 | -38.2% | 67.2% | 134 | -1.6% |
| 5 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.54 | -33.7% | 86.4% | 44 | -2.9% |
| 6 | Least Squares MA ✓ | Daily | 8.0% | 0.53 | -75.9% | 43.6% | 1029 | -1.9% |
| 7 | LSMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.8% | 0.52 | -43.2% | 47.9% | 526 | -2.1% |
| 8 | B-Xtrender ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.51 | -75.5% | 44.3% | 1073 | -3.5% |
| 9 | Keltner 10 (x1.5) ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.51 | -33.6% | 43.7% | 389 | -6.3% |
| 10 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.5 | -80.0% | 49.5% | 1071 | -2.2% |
| 11 | DEMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.5 | -46.2% | 43.2% | 391 | -2.4% |
| 12 | Stochastic (10,3) ✓ | Daily | 7.7% | 0.5 | -86.3% | 44.8% | 1526 | -2.2% |
| 13 | Zero-Lag LSMA ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.49 | -67.6% | 49.8% | 860 | -2.5% |
| 14 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.49 | -36.0% | 87.5% | 16 | -3.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Travelers Companies (The) (TRV)
0 of 707 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Travelers Companies (The) (TRV) outright. Another 313 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 270 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | — | 1.44× | 2.3× |
| Demand Index | — | 1.49× | 2.51× |
| Trend Regularity Adaptive MA | — | 1.66× | 4.0× |
| SMA 10/40 Cross | — | 1.67× | 3.86× |
| WMA 15/60 Cross | — | 1.8× | 4.27× |
| KAMA 100 Trend | — | 1.87× | 2.97× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Travelers Companies (The) (TRV), Ehlers Cyber Cycle on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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