The best indicator for Toast
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Toast history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Toast stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Bullish Harami
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Toast over ~5.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 39.2% CAGR.
Toast on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bullish Harami ✓ | Daily | 25.0% | 1.01 | -23.4% | 58.7% | 46 | 39.2% |
| 2 | Hammer ✓ | Daily | 13.4% | 0.83 | -19.3% | 68.4% | 19 | 27.6% |
| 3 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Daily | 11.4% | 0.77 | -13.3% | 58.8% | 17 | 25.6% |
| 4 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Daily | 16.3% | 0.69 | -31.5% | 49.1% | 53 | 30.5% |
| 5 | Zero-Lag LSMA ✓ | Weekly | 16.6% | 0.65 | -41.2% | 57.1% | 14 | 28.7% |
| 6 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 13.4% | 0.6 | -34.1% | 60.0% | 15 | 27.7% |
| 7 | Fisher Center-of-Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 14.3% | 0.6 | -40.2% | 50.0% | 24 | 26.5% |
| 8 | Klinger Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 13.0% | 0.55 | -41.0% | 61.1% | 18 | 25.1% |
| 9 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 13.6% | 0.54 | -46.5% | 67.7% | 62 | 27.8% |
| 10 | Advance Trend Pressure ✓ | Weekly | 14.0% | 0.55 | -33.3% | 57.1% | 14 | 26.2% |
| 11 | ZLEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.48 | -40.5% | 40.0% | 20 | 25.1% |
| 12 | Chaikin Volatility | Daily | 9.0% | 0.44 | -40.9% | 43.7% | 71 | 23.3% |
| 13 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Daily | 9.1% | 0.44 | -29.7% | 45.5% | 33 | 23.3% |
| 14 | On-Balance Volume | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.44 | -41.0% | 29.4% | 17 | 22.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Toast lost money across the out-of-sample window in 270 of 270 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Toast, Bullish Harami on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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