The best indicator for TD Bank
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real TD Bank history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where TD Bank stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Supertrend Fast (10,2)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for TD Bank over ~30.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.5% CAGR.
TD Bank on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supertrend Fast (10,2) ✓ | Weekly | 14.0% | 0.87 | -33.0% | 51.5% | 33 | -1.5% |
| 2 | Supertrend (10,2) ✓ | Weekly | 14.0% | 0.87 | -33.0% | 51.5% | 33 | -1.5% |
| 3 | Supertrend (7,2) ✓ | Weekly | 13.7% | 0.85 | -34.5% | 52.9% | 34 | -1.9% |
| 4 | Ease of Movement ✓ | Weekly | 13.4% | 0.83 | -28.5% | 57.4% | 68 | -2.2% |
| 5 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Weekly | 13.1% | 0.82 | -39.7% | 35.6% | 45 | -2.5% |
| 6 | KAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 13.1% | 0.81 | -41.4% | 36.1% | 205 | -2.5% |
| 7 | KAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.4% | 0.81 | -30.0% | 39.3% | 56 | -2.1% |
| 8 | Volatility Stop (ATR) ✓ | Weekly | 13.1% | 0.81 | -35.4% | 60.0% | 40 | -2.4% |
| 9 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.8 | -30.7% | 63.2% | 68 | -2.8% |
| 10 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.8 | -30.7% | 63.2% | 68 | -2.8% |
| 11 | Vortex ✓ | Weekly | 12.6% | 0.78 | -29.7% | 65.7% | 67 | -3.0% |
| 12 | VIDYA ✓ | Weekly | 13.4% | 0.78 | -32.2% | 47.2% | 53 | -2.2% |
| 13 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Weekly | 12.2% | 0.77 | -32.7% | 72.7% | 22 | -3.4% |
| 14 | Elastic VW MA ✓ | Weekly | 13.1% | 0.77 | -41.8% | 49.1% | 55 | -2.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on TD Bank
5 of 678 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on TD Bank outright. Another 544 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 104 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.34× | 2.65× |
| SSL Channel | 1 | 1.77× | 4.28× |
| Coppock (fast) | 1 | 2.17× | 3.49× |
| Markov Regime (Confirmed) | 1 | 3.54× | 3.41× |
| Heikin-Ashi Trend | 1 | none needed | 3.94× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | — | 1.11× | 2.94× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For TD Bank, Supertrend Fast (10,2) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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