The best indicator for J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
VWAP Bands
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM) over ~31.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.63 | -23.9% | 68.6% | 140 | -0.2% |
| 2 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 7.8% | 0.58 | -37.7% | 75.6% | 86 | 0.4% |
| 3 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.57 | -30.0% | 69.2% | 169 | -0.0% |
| 4 | Stochastic RSI ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.56 | -29.8% | 60.3% | 242 | 0.0% |
| 5 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.55 | -26.8% | 75.5% | 143 | -0.7% |
| 6 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.55 | -26.8% | 75.5% | 143 | -0.7% |
| 7 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.54 | -15.4% | 72.4% | 58 | -3.6% |
| 8 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.53 | -30.3% | 61.2% | 278 | -0.3% |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.51 | -28.4% | 76.7% | 30 | -2.2% |
| 10 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.51 | -28.4% | 76.7% | 30 | -2.2% |
| 11 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.5 | -33.6% | 67.2% | 67 | -0.8% |
| 12 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.5 | -29.7% | 84.2% | 19 | -1.8% |
| 13 | Demand Index ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.5 | -29.7% | 70.0% | 70 | -0.4% |
| 14 | Order-Flow Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.5 | -26.8% | 77.0% | 122 | -1.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM)
63 of 696 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM) outright. Another 6 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 2 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bollinger Mean-Reversion | 2 | none needed | 4.39× |
| Williams %R | 2 | none needed | 3.8× |
| CCI | 2 | none needed | 4.05× |
| WaveTrend (8/6/4) | 2 | none needed | 4.06× |
| Stochastic RSI | 2 | none needed | 4.02× |
| Stochastic Momentum Index | 2 | none needed | 4.12× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM), VWAP Bands on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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