The best indicator for Sunrun
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Sunrun history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bullish Engulfing
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Sunrun over ~10.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 22.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Daily | 24.5% | 0.77 | -54.2% | 57.8% | 102 | 22.4% |
| 2 | Demand Index ✓ | Weekly | 30.5% | 0.76 | -58.6% | 75.9% | 29 | 27.8% |
| 3 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 32.4% | 0.81 | -54.5% | 78.6% | 14 | 29.7% |
| 4 | Morning Star ✓ | Daily | 21.1% | 0.75 | -68.3% | 53.2% | 94 | 18.9% |
| 5 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 25.5% | 0.67 | -66.5% | 71.9% | 32 | 22.8% |
| 6 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 25.5% | 0.67 | -64.8% | 61.9% | 21 | 22.7% |
| 7 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Daily | 11.9% | 0.66 | -43.0% | 63.6% | 44 | 9.8% |
| 8 | Relative Volume Spike ✓ | Daily | 13.7% | 0.62 | -42.0% | 44.9% | 49 | 11.6% |
| 9 | Median MA | Daily | 18.2% | 0.61 | -75.3% | 43.2% | 162 | 16.1% |
| 10 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 16.9% | 0.58 | -55.3% | 70.6% | 51 | 14.8% |
| 11 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 18.5% | 0.58 | -73.7% | 69.7% | 33 | 16.3% |
| 12 | TEMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 18.2% | 0.58 | -80.6% | 50.0% | 16 | 15.5% |
| 13 | HMA 9/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 18.0% | 0.58 | -72.5% | 47.4% | 38 | 15.2% |
| 14 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 14.8% | 0.56 | -55.3% | 75.0% | 20 | 12.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Sunrun, Bullish Engulfing on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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