The best indicator for Rivian
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Rivian history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Hull MA 100 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Rivian over ~4.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 53.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hull MA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 18.9% | 0.62 | -45.4% | 42.1% | 19 | 53.0% |
| 2 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.51 | -23.6% | 50.0% | 14 | 42.5% |
| 3 | Keltner 20 Break ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.47 | -18.9% | 38.1% | 21 | 41.9% |
| 4 | Bollinger 50 (x2.5) Break | Daily | 7.8% | 0.54 | -18.3% | 46.2% | 13 | 41.9% |
| 5 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 11.5% | 0.46 | -61.7% | 47.1% | 51 | 45.6% |
| 6 | Holt Double-Exp MA ✓ | Weekly | 11.5% | 0.45 | -31.5% | 40.0% | 15 | 48.8% |
| 7 | Bollinger 10 (x1.5) Break ✓ | Weekly | 12.1% | 0.5 | -24.5% | 53.8% | 13 | 49.4% |
| 8 | Bollinger 30 (x2.0) Break ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.42 | -24.2% | 35.7% | 28 | 41.1% |
| 9 | LSMA 100 Trend | Daily | 9.2% | 0.41 | -40.6% | 42.9% | 35 | 43.3% |
| 10 | ZLEMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.36 | -52.4% | 42.9% | 28 | 40.7% |
| 11 | Zero-Lag LSMA ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.32 | -64.5% | 48.4% | 64 | 37.2% |
| 12 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.31 | -62.5% | 36.4% | 22 | 41.0% |
| 13 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.46 | -16.3% | 70.0% | 10 | 42.1% |
| 14 | Least Squares MA ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.38 | -47.3% | 41.7% | 12 | 44.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Rivian, Hull MA 100 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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