The best indicator for PulteGroup (PHM)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real PulteGroup (PHM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where PulteGroup (PHM) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Williams Fractals
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for PulteGroup (PHM) over ~46.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.2% CAGR.
PulteGroup (PHM) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for PulteGroup (PHM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 11.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Williams Fractals ✓ | Weekly | 16.9% | 0.63 | -63.5% | 48.1% | 52 | 1.2% |
| 2 | Trendlines with Breaks ✓ | Daily | 14.8% | 0.59 | -67.0% | 38.4% | 99 | -1.0% |
| 3 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Weekly | 14.5% | 0.59 | -71.5% | 47.0% | 100 | -1.2% |
| 4 | Force Index ✓ | Weekly | 14.5% | 0.58 | -72.9% | 45.5% | 145 | -1.2% |
| 5 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Weekly | 11.1% | 0.57 | -45.8% | 48.2% | 137 | -4.6% |
| 6 | Supertrend (20,3) ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.57 | -69.7% | 59.4% | 32 | -2.2% |
| 7 | Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 13.4% | 0.56 | -77.3% | 50.7% | 150 | -2.3% |
| 8 | ROC (10) ✓ | Weekly | 13.4% | 0.56 | -77.3% | 50.7% | 150 | -2.3% |
| 9 | Momentum (10) ✓ | Weekly | 13.4% | 0.56 | -77.3% | 50.7% | 150 | -2.3% |
| 10 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 12.7% | 0.55 | -75.5% | 42.9% | 49 | -3.1% |
| 11 | Accelerator Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 13.0% | 0.55 | -67.6% | 47.8% | 136 | -2.8% |
| 12 | TRIMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.9% | 0.55 | -70.4% | 45.5% | 66 | -3.8% |
| 13 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Weekly | 13.4% | 0.55 | -65.8% | 44.4% | 160 | -2.3% |
| 14 | Donchian 10 Break ✓ | Weekly | 13.0% | 0.55 | -84.6% | 51.1% | 47 | -2.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on PulteGroup (PHM)
1 of 712 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on PulteGroup (PHM) outright. Another 167 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 450 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime | 1 | none needed | 1.73× |
| QQE | — | 1.31× | 2.03× |
| MA Envelope | — | 1.36× | 2.11× |
| Volume Flow Indicator | — | 1.5× | 1.65× |
| Trend Regularity Adaptive MA | — | 1.58× | 2.38× |
| Ichimoku TK Cross | — | 1.71× | 2.33× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For PulteGroup (PHM), Williams Fractals on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More stock
Get alerted when PulteGroup’s signal flips
We track PulteGroup daily. Its backtested best indicator, Williams Fractals (Weekly), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.