The best indicator for PulteGroup (PHM)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real PulteGroup (PHM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Williams Fractals
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for PulteGroup (PHM) over ~46.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.5% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for PulteGroup (PHM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 11.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Williams Fractals ✓ | Weekly | 17.4% | 0.64 | -63.5% | 50.0% | 52 | 1.5% |
| 2 | Trendlines with Breaks ✓ | Daily | 15.6% | 0.61 | -67.0% | 40.6% | 96 | -0.2% |
| 3 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Weekly | 14.8% | 0.6 | -70.6% | 48.0% | 100 | -1.1% |
| 4 | Force Index ✓ | Weekly | 14.7% | 0.59 | -72.9% | 46.9% | 145 | -1.2% |
| 5 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Weekly | 13.8% | 0.57 | -65.7% | 45.6% | 158 | -2.1% |
| 6 | Supertrend (20,3) ✓ | Weekly | 13.6% | 0.57 | -69.7% | 59.4% | 32 | -2.3% |
| 7 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.1% | 0.56 | -75.5% | 43.8% | 48 | -2.7% |
| 8 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Weekly | 11.0% | 0.56 | -45.8% | 49.3% | 136 | -4.9% |
| 9 | TRIMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 12.2% | 0.56 | -70.4% | 46.2% | 65 | -3.7% |
| 10 | Donchian 10 Break ✓ | Weekly | 13.3% | 0.56 | -84.6% | 52.2% | 46 | -2.5% |
| 11 | Price Momentum Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 13.2% | 0.56 | -86.2% | 50.0% | 66 | -2.7% |
| 12 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Daily | 13.2% | 0.55 | -80.8% | 44.0% | 109 | -2.7% |
| 13 | Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 13.2% | 0.55 | -77.4% | 51.3% | 152 | -2.7% |
| 14 | Accelerator Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 12.9% | 0.55 | -70.3% | 48.9% | 133 | -3.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For PulteGroup (PHM), Williams Fractals on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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