The best indicator for Progressive Corporation (PGR)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Progressive Corporation (PGR) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
ADXR
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Progressive Corporation (PGR) over ~46.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.2% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Progressive Corporation (PGR) — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.2% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 14.2% | 0.85 | -39.9% | 41.5% | 337 | -7.2% |
| 2 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 18.3% | 0.85 | -48.3% | 51.4% | 37 | -3.1% |
| 3 | Supertrend Fast (10,2) ✓ | Daily | 15.8% | 0.83 | -51.1% | 44.3% | 298 | -5.6% |
| 4 | Supertrend (7,2) ✓ | Daily | 15.6% | 0.83 | -52.3% | 44.6% | 298 | -5.7% |
| 5 | Supertrend (10,2) ✓ | Daily | 15.8% | 0.83 | -51.1% | 44.3% | 298 | -5.6% |
| 6 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Daily | 15.8% | 0.83 | -67.7% | 44.0% | 580 | -5.6% |
| 7 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 15.4% | 0.82 | -69.1% | 46.8% | 782 | -6.0% |
| 8 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 15.2% | 0.81 | -63.2% | 47.3% | 497 | -6.1% |
| 9 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Daily | 15.1% | 0.81 | -55.4% | 40.6% | 372 | -6.2% |
| 10 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 19.3% | 0.81 | -47.8% | 57.6% | 66 | -2.1% |
| 11 | ADX Strong Trend ✓ | Daily | 11.2% | 0.8 | -44.1% | 48.5% | 194 | -10.1% |
| 12 | STARC Bands ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.8 | -32.7% | 49.3% | 217 | -10.4% |
| 13 | Stochastic RSI ✓ | Weekly | 11.9% | 0.8 | -24.3% | 83.3% | 78 | -9.5% |
| 14 | ROC (60) ✓ | Weekly | 17.2% | 0.8 | -37.4% | 60.5% | 38 | -4.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Progressive Corporation (PGR), ADXR on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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