The best indicator for O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Detrended Price Osc.
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) over ~33.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.2% CAGR.
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 11.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 18.8% | 0.85 | -43.2% | 60.5% | 195 | -2.2% |
| 2 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 16.8% | 0.76 | -35.1% | 81.5% | 27 | -4.2% |
| 3 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Daily | 15.5% | 0.74 | -32.3% | 49.2% | 980 | -5.6% |
| 4 | CCI (50) ✓ | Weekly | 15.5% | 0.74 | -37.9% | 52.9% | 34 | -5.5% |
| 5 | EMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 16.2% | 0.74 | -43.7% | 75.0% | 16 | -4.8% |
| 6 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 16.2% | 0.74 | -44.9% | 75.0% | 16 | -4.7% |
| 7 | Guppy Multiple MA ✓ | Weekly | 15.8% | 0.73 | -43.7% | 64.7% | 17 | -5.2% |
| 8 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 19.3% | 0.73 | -48.6% | 58.8% | 97 | -1.7% |
| 9 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 15.6% | 0.72 | -41.1% | 76.0% | 25 | -5.4% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 16.3% | 0.71 | -45.0% | 73.3% | 15 | -4.8% |
| 11 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Weekly | 15.0% | 0.71 | -45.6% | 71.4% | 28 | -5.9% |
| 12 | CCI (100) ✓ | Weekly | 15.6% | 0.71 | -50.1% | 75.0% | 16 | -5.4% |
| 13 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 15.9% | 0.7 | -47.5% | 64.7% | 17 | -5.2% |
| 14 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 13.3% | 0.7 | -51.0% | 66.8% | 298 | -7.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
1 of 658 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) outright. Another 363 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 205 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative Volume Index | 1 | none needed | 2.47× |
| QQE | — | 1.43× | 2.19× |
| FRAMA 10/30 Cross | — | 1.64× | 4.08× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | — | 1.7× | 2.77× |
| Aroon | — | 1.72× | 3.64× |
| Aroon Oscillator | — | 1.72× | 3.64× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Detrended Price Osc. on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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