The best indicator for NZD/USD
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real NZD/USD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for NZD/USD over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 8.3% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for NZD/USD — beating buy-and-hold by 6.4% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 7.8% | 0.95 | -20.5% | 35.3% | 573 | 8.3% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.9 | -26.4% | 38.6% | 425 | 7.9% |
| 3 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.81 | -25.2% | 29.1% | 296 | 6.9% |
| 4 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 5.9% | 0.75 | -25.8% | 35.1% | 410 | 6.4% |
| 5 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.61 | -28.0% | 35.8% | 271 | 5.3% |
| 6 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.59 | -26.8% | 33.4% | 461 | 4.6% |
| 7 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 4.0% | 0.51 | -26.3% | 32.2% | 419 | 4.4% |
| 8 | CCI (14) ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.47 | -27.0% | 29.0% | 362 | 4.1% |
| 9 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.4 | -34.7% | 34.8% | 293 | 3.4% |
| 10 | CCI Trend ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.39 | -31.2% | 29.5% | 288 | 3.4% |
| 11 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.39 | -29.7% | 36.6% | 246 | 3.4% |
| 12 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Daily | 1.9% | 0.36 | -14.6% | 33.9% | 313 | 2.4% |
| 13 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.33 | -32.8% | 36.5% | 348 | 2.9% |
| 14 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.32 | -25.6% | 33.4% | 299 | 2.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For NZD/USD, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More forex
Get alerted when NZD/USD’s signal flips
We track NZD/USD daily. Its backtested best indicator, Fisher Transform (Daily), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.