The best indicator for NZD/JPY
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real NZD/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where NZD/JPY stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for NZD/JPY over ~23.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 10.4% CAGR.
NZD/JPY on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for NZD/JPY — beating buy-and-hold by 9.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 11.4% | 1.18 | -37.5% | 36.8% | 573 | 10.4% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 10.3% | 1.09 | -37.9% | 39.8% | 427 | 9.3% |
| 3 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.88 | -23.8% | 36.7% | 498 | 6.0% |
| 4 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.82 | -29.5% | 32.8% | 296 | 5.6% |
| 5 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.79 | -37.7% | 37.1% | 453 | 6.0% |
| 6 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.73 | -40.4% | 38.6% | 272 | 5.7% |
| 7 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.64 | -15.4% | 35.3% | 343 | 2.8% |
| 8 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.63 | -36.2% | 39.0% | 426 | 4.5% |
| 9 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.63 | -32.1% | 36.0% | 314 | 4.2% |
| 10 | CCI (14) ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.61 | -32.0% | 33.4% | 365 | 4.3% |
| 11 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.59 | -19.0% | 36.2% | 265 | 3.6% |
| 12 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 4.9% | 0.57 | -37.3% | 35.3% | 306 | 3.9% |
| 13 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.52 | -37.2% | 35.5% | 307 | 3.5% |
| 14 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.52 | -37.2% | 35.5% | 307 | 3.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on NZD/JPY
24 of 583 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on NZD/JPY outright. Another 125 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 74 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parabolic SAR | 1 | 4.18× | 9.54× |
| Markov Regime | 1 | 4.36× | 6.21× |
| Parabolic SAR (fast) | 1 | 4.6× | 10.62× |
| DeMarker (14) | 1 | 4.6× | 9.14× |
| Heikin-Ashi + EMA | 1 | 5.11× | 10.58× |
| DeMarker (7) | 1 | 5.75× | 11.83× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For NZD/JPY, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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