The best indicator for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Marathon Petroleum (MPC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
TEMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) over ~15.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.5% CAGR.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — trailing buy-and-hold by 10.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 29.2% | 1.13 | -32.8% | 60.5% | 81 | 3.5% |
| 2 | DEMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 28.0% | 1.06 | -30.7% | 51.7% | 118 | 2.3% |
| 3 | Hull MA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 28.2% | 1.06 | -35.1% | 53.7% | 82 | 2.5% |
| 4 | Price Momentum Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 26.7% | 1.03 | -35.8% | 49.5% | 109 | 1.0% |
| 5 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Daily | 29.7% | 1.02 | -41.7% | 46.1% | 128 | 4.0% |
| 6 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | Daily | 26.6% | 1.02 | -43.1% | 56.1% | 66 | 0.9% |
| 7 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Daily | 26.3% | 1.02 | -40.3% | 45.8% | 107 | 0.6% |
| 8 | Chande Forecast Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 26.4% | 1.02 | -29.0% | 58.8% | 80 | 0.9% |
| 9 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | Weekly | 25.2% | 1.0 | -31.4% | 62.9% | 62 | -0.3% |
| 10 | Keltner Breakout ✓ | Daily | 18.0% | 0.99 | -23.1% | 68.2% | 44 | -7.7% |
| 11 | Hull MA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 25.1% | 0.96 | -37.5% | 50.4% | 115 | -0.5% |
| 12 | Ehlers Roofing Filter ✓ | Daily | 24.0% | 0.95 | -45.3% | 57.4% | 68 | -1.7% |
| 13 | Stoch RSI (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 23.7% | 0.95 | -32.8% | 57.9% | 76 | -1.8% |
| 14 | WMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 22.6% | 0.94 | -33.1% | 47.7% | 44 | -3.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
3 of 538 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Marathon Petroleum (MPC) outright. Another 390 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 127 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.06× | 2.35× |
| Accumulation Swing Index | 1 | none needed | 3.57× |
| Swing Index | 1 | none needed | 3.57× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.5× | 2.88× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.65× | 2.82× |
| Elder Ray (Bull/Bear Power) | — | 1.83× | 4.02× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Marathon Petroleum (MPC), TEMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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