The best indicator for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Illinois Tool Works (ITW) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
QQE
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) over ~53.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 12.5% | 0.6 | -47.8% | 50.3% | 161 | 0.3% |
| 2 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 12.0% | 0.56 | -54.9% | 19.4% | 31 | -0.3% |
| 3 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 11.7% | 0.56 | -54.9% | 44.9% | 118 | -0.5% |
| 4 | VIDYA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.55 | -60.8% | 43.2% | 37 | -1.2% |
| 5 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.4% | 0.55 | -53.9% | 34.8% | 23 | -0.8% |
| 6 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.54 | -39.4% | 68.8% | 170 | -4.1% |
| 7 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.6% | 0.57 | -53.9% | 21.4% | 14 | -0.6% |
| 8 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.53 | -37.9% | 60.4% | 313 | -3.5% |
| 9 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.4% | 0.56 | -53.9% | 35.7% | 14 | -0.8% |
| 10 | Center of Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.52 | -37.5% | 51.5% | 344 | -4.3% |
| 11 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.52 | -24.6% | 91.9% | 37 | -6.5% |
| 12 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.52 | -47.1% | 77.8% | 27 | -3.1% |
| 13 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.51 | -49.7% | 78.4% | 88 | -5.0% |
| 14 | Negative Volume Index ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.51 | -40.8% | 59.3% | 27 | -2.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
0 of 719 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Illinois Tool Works (ITW) outright. Another 254 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 369 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | — | 1.15× | 2.61× |
| SMC: Liquidity Sweep | — | 1.37× | 4.19× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | — | 1.73× | 2.76× |
| EMA 200 Trend | — | 1.74× | 3.05× |
| WaveTrend (8/6/4) | — | 1.78× | 3.8× |
| VIDYA 30 Trend | — | 1.79× | 3.06× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Illinois Tool Works (ITW), QQE on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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