The best indicator for GBP/JPY
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real GBP/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where GBP/JPY stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for GBP/JPY over ~23.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 10.7% CAGR.
GBP/JPY on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for GBP/JPY — beating buy-and-hold by 10.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 11.1% | 1.35 | -37.9% | 37.4% | 570 | 10.7% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 9.8% | 1.2 | -39.8% | 41.3% | 426 | 9.3% |
| 3 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 8.3% | 1.16 | -17.5% | 32.6% | 267 | 7.9% |
| 4 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.87 | -42.5% | 38.6% | 404 | 6.3% |
| 5 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.86 | -35.4% | 42.9% | 268 | 6.3% |
| 6 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.76 | -39.7% | 39.9% | 406 | 5.5% |
| 7 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.74 | -21.4% | 32.3% | 344 | 3.3% |
| 8 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.72 | -32.4% | 39.1% | 486 | 4.4% |
| 9 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.66 | -22.9% | 33.0% | 176 | 3.3% |
| 10 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.65 | -33.0% | 36.2% | 279 | 4.3% |
| 11 | CCI (14) ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.6 | -31.8% | 37.9% | 343 | 4.0% |
| 12 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.57 | -35.6% | 40.5% | 269 | 3.7% |
| 13 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.57 | -35.6% | 40.5% | 269 | 3.7% |
| 14 | CCI (30) ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.52 | -22.1% | 30.0% | 237 | 3.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on GBP/JPY
18 of 576 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on GBP/JPY outright. Another 273 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 120 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parabolic SAR (fast) | 1 | 1.87× | 16.71× |
| Aroon | 1 | 1.97× | 9.11× |
| Vortex | 1 | 1.97× | 11.82× |
| Random Walk Index | 1 | 1.97× | 13.43× |
| Aroon Oscillator | 1 | 1.97× | 9.11× |
| Random Walk Index | 1 | 1.97× | 13.43× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For GBP/JPY, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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