The best indicator for EUR/USD
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real EUR/USD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where EUR/USD stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
DMI Direction
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for EUR/USD over ~23.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.0% CAGR.
EUR/USD on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for EUR/USD — beating buy-and-hold by 3.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.49 | -26.0% | 31.5% | 279 | 4.0% |
| 2 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.48 | -52.3% | 34.8% | 574 | 3.6% |
| 3 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.41 | -50.5% | 37.6% | 436 | 3.1% |
| 4 | Ehlers Roofing Filter ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.35 | -10.9% | 57.1% | 21 | 2.2% |
| 5 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.35 | -12.9% | 68.4% | 19 | 2.1% |
| 6 | VuManChu Cipher B ✓ | Daily | 1.3% | 0.29 | -12.4% | 35.7% | 305 | 1.5% |
| 7 | Ehlers TrendFlex | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.29 | -13.0% | 63.6% | 22 | 1.8% |
| 8 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 2.0% | 0.28 | -38.2% | 33.9% | 289 | 2.2% |
| 9 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.28 | -11.4% | 60.0% | 20 | 1.7% |
| 10 | Ichimoku TK Cross | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.27 | -14.3% | 61.9% | 21 | 1.6% |
| 11 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 1.5% | 0.26 | -19.1% | 31.1% | 424 | 1.7% |
| 12 | DEMA 20/50 Cross | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.26 | -13.0% | 43.8% | 16 | 1.6% |
| 13 | Even Better Sinewave | Weekly | 1.4% | 0.26 | -12.8% | 45.5% | 22 | 1.7% |
| 14 | TRIMA 30 Trend | Weekly | 1.2% | 0.26 | -12.5% | 51.7% | 29 | 1.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on EUR/USD
92 of 1260 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on EUR/USD outright. Another 54 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 2 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vortex | 2 | none needed | 10.75× |
| Fisher Transform | 2 | none needed | 6.62× |
| Random Walk Index | 2 | none needed | 10.64× |
| Smoothed Heikin-Ashi | 2 | none needed | 7.18× |
| DMI Direction | 2 | none needed | 11.02× |
| Impulse MACD | 2 | none needed | 16.3× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For EUR/USD, DMI Direction on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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