The best indicator for EUR/JPY
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real EUR/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where EUR/JPY stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for EUR/JPY over ~24.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 7.4% CAGR.
EUR/JPY on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for EUR/JPY — beating buy-and-hold by 7.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 8.8% | 1.19 | -34.4% | 37.7% | 573 | 7.4% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 1.01 | -36.2% | 38.1% | 443 | 6.1% |
| 3 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.94 | -22.9% | 39.8% | 412 | 5.2% |
| 4 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.93 | -19.0% | 35.9% | 281 | 4.9% |
| 5 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.74 | -32.5% | 38.4% | 297 | 3.9% |
| 6 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.68 | -30.0% | 37.1% | 507 | 2.8% |
| 7 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.67 | -31.3% | 36.3% | 435 | 3.3% |
| 8 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.66 | -26.9% | 33.1% | 350 | 1.8% |
| 9 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.63 | -26.2% | 35.5% | 310 | 2.7% |
| 10 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 3.5% | 0.53 | -18.9% | 38.8% | 273 | 2.1% |
| 11 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.51 | -23.0% | 36.2% | 307 | 2.0% |
| 12 | CCI Trend ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.5 | -19.5% | 31.8% | 305 | 2.0% |
| 13 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.49 | -20.3% | 37.0% | 305 | 1.8% |
| 14 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.49 | -20.3% | 37.0% | 305 | 1.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on EUR/JPY
16 of 572 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on EUR/JPY outright. Another 268 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 58 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vortex (7) | 1 | 1.4× | 13.07× |
| CCI Trend | 1 | 1.94× | 16.58× |
| Parabolic SAR | 1 | 2.07× | 15.64× |
| CCI (14) | 1 | 2.61× | 15.42× |
| DMI Direction | 1 | 2.86× | 19.26× |
| DeMarker (7) | 1 | 3.0× | 17.06× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For EUR/JPY, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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