The best indicator for Duolingo
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Duolingo history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Duolingo stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Holt Double-Exp MA
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Duolingo over ~5.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 27.7% CAGR.
Duolingo on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holt Double-Exp MA ✓ | Weekly | 28.0% | 0.82 | -39.6% | 31.6% | 19 | 27.7% |
| 2 | TEMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 24.1% | 0.81 | -36.6% | 38.2% | 34 | 22.9% |
| 3 | ZLEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 27.0% | 0.79 | -38.3% | 42.9% | 14 | 26.7% |
| 4 | Hull MA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 21.9% | 0.72 | -36.0% | 45.0% | 20 | 20.7% |
| 5 | Choppiness Index | Daily | 12.2% | 0.71 | -26.5% | 42.1% | 19 | 11.0% |
| 6 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Daily | 15.0% | 0.7 | -32.2% | 56.8% | 37 | 13.8% |
| 7 | DEMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 21.1% | 0.69 | -37.5% | 41.9% | 31 | 20.0% |
| 8 | LSMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 21.9% | 0.69 | -42.3% | 43.8% | 16 | 21.6% |
| 9 | Chaikin Volatility ✓ | Weekly | 20.9% | 0.68 | -41.8% | 40.0% | 15 | 20.6% |
| 10 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Daily | 21.8% | 0.67 | -51.9% | 45.9% | 37 | 20.6% |
| 11 | Camarilla Pivots | Weekly | 21.8% | 0.65 | -64.1% | 45.6% | 57 | 21.5% |
| 12 | Gator Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.64 | -38.0% | 63.4% | 71 | 11.4% |
| 13 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.63 | -25.3% | 53.6% | 28 | 9.8% |
| 14 | HalfTrend ✓ | Daily | 19.6% | 0.62 | -52.8% | 43.8% | 32 | 18.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Duolingo lost money across the out-of-sample window in 215 of 215 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Duolingo, Holt Double-Exp MA on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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