The best indicator for Duolingo
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Duolingo history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Duolingo stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
TEMA 100 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Duolingo over ~4.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 30.9% CAGR.
Duolingo on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 28.6% | 0.94 | -36.6% | 43.3% | 30 | 30.9% |
| 2 | Choppiness Index | Daily | 13.5% | 0.76 | -24.3% | 44.4% | 18 | 15.8% |
| 3 | Holt Double-Exp MA ✓ | Weekly | 25.1% | 0.76 | -39.6% | 31.6% | 19 | 28.2% |
| 4 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Daily | 15.7% | 0.72 | -32.2% | 55.6% | 36 | 17.9% |
| 5 | Hull MA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 20.1% | 0.7 | -36.0% | 47.4% | 19 | 22.3% |
| 6 | ZLEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 24.3% | 0.74 | -38.3% | 42.9% | 14 | 27.4% |
| 7 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Daily | 23.1% | 0.69 | -51.9% | 45.9% | 37 | 25.4% |
| 8 | DEMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 19.6% | 0.67 | -37.5% | 41.9% | 31 | 21.9% |
| 9 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 22.3% | 0.67 | -58.9% | 48.1% | 52 | 24.6% |
| 10 | Volume Oscillator | Daily | 17.4% | 0.66 | -39.7% | 57.1% | 42 | 19.7% |
| 11 | HalfTrend ✓ | Daily | 21.9% | 0.66 | -52.8% | 41.9% | 31 | 24.2% |
| 12 | Delta Volume (CVD proxy) ✓ | Daily | 21.7% | 0.66 | -63.9% | 41.9% | 62 | 23.9% |
| 13 | Half Trend ✓ | Daily | 21.8% | 0.66 | -52.8% | 41.9% | 31 | 24.1% |
| 14 | Chaikin Volatility | Daily | 15.9% | 0.65 | -40.3% | 51.4% | 74 | 18.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Duolingo lost money across the out-of-sample window in 215 of 215 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Duolingo, TEMA 100 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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