The best indicator for Dollar Tree (DLTR)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dollar Tree (DLTR) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Dollar Tree (DLTR) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Standard Error Bands
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dollar Tree (DLTR) over ~31.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 10.7% CAGR.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Dollar Tree (DLTR) — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Standard Error Bands ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.6 | -15.3% | 80.0% | 15 | -10.7% |
| 2 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Weekly | 10.4% | 0.58 | -47.9% | 94.4% | 18 | -5.2% |
| 3 | UT Bot (ATR Trailing) ✓ | Weekly | 12.9% | 0.57 | -57.9% | 50.6% | 89 | -2.7% |
| 4 | True Strength Index ✓ | Weekly | 11.4% | 0.56 | -44.2% | 55.6% | 63 | -4.2% |
| 5 | Williams %R (7) ✓ | Weekly | 12.1% | 0.56 | -46.9% | 51.7% | 145 | -3.5% |
| 6 | MBFX Timing ✓ | Weekly | 12.1% | 0.56 | -46.9% | 51.7% | 145 | -3.5% |
| 7 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 14.0% | 0.55 | -62.0% | 44.2% | 43 | -1.5% |
| 8 | Stoch RSI (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 11.9% | 0.55 | -67.6% | 51.8% | 166 | -3.7% |
| 9 | Stochastic RSI ✓ | Daily | 10.7% | 0.54 | -54.5% | 69.9% | 229 | -5.0% |
| 10 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Daily | 12.3% | 0.54 | -50.7% | 48.5% | 68 | -3.4% |
| 11 | Smoothed Heikin-Ashi ✓ | Weekly | 11.6% | 0.54 | -45.4% | 49.5% | 103 | -3.9% |
| 12 | Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 13.0% | 0.54 | -67.8% | 43.1% | 102 | -2.6% |
| 13 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Daily | 11.8% | 0.53 | -49.6% | 45.0% | 100 | -3.9% |
| 14 | Ultimate Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 10.3% | 0.53 | -55.4% | 66.7% | 24 | -5.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Dollar Tree (DLTR)
205 of 689 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Dollar Tree (DLTR) outright. Another 90 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 65 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| True Strength Index | 2 | none needed | 2.12× |
| Arnaud Legoux MA | 2 | none needed | 2.56× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | 2 | none needed | 1.77× |
| Fractal Adaptive MA | 2 | none needed | 2.37× |
| Ehlers Cyber Cycle | 2 | none needed | 2.02× |
| UT Bot (ATR Trailing) | 2 | none needed | 2.44× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Dollar Tree (DLTR), Standard Error Bands on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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