The best indicator for Trump Media
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Trump Media history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Trump Media stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Bullish Engulfing
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Trump Media over ~4.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 45.1% CAGR.
Trump Media on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Daily | 99.2% | 0.79 | -75.4% | 37.9% | 224 | 106.2% |
| 2 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Daily | 38.0% | 0.77 | -41.4% | 32.4% | 37 | 45.1% |
| 3 | Perfect Trend Line | Daily | 36.6% | 0.7 | -65.2% | 32.3% | 124 | 43.7% |
| 4 | Accumulation Swing Index | Daily | 34.1% | 0.68 | -76.7% | 37.0% | 254 | 41.1% |
| 5 | Swing Index | Daily | 34.1% | 0.68 | -76.7% | 37.0% | 254 | 41.1% |
| 6 | ROC (5) | Daily | 32.0% | 0.67 | -64.4% | 29.8% | 114 | 39.0% |
| 7 | Gann HiLo Activator | Daily | 52.1% | 0.65 | -67.2% | 27.5% | 80 | 59.1% |
| 8 | Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | Daily | 44.5% | 0.65 | -81.7% | 29.9% | 97 | 51.5% |
| 9 | Fisher Transform | Daily | 45.3% | 0.63 | -62.2% | 36.4% | 110 | 52.3% |
| 10 | DMI Direction | Daily | 43.3% | 0.63 | -77.4% | 27.8% | 36 | 50.4% |
| 11 | Williams %R (7) | Daily | 26.6% | 0.62 | -63.8% | 27.1% | 107 | 33.6% |
| 12 | MBFX Timing | Daily | 26.6% | 0.62 | -63.8% | 27.1% | 107 | 33.6% |
| 13 | Instantaneous Trendline | Daily | 38.9% | 0.6 | -73.8% | 27.5% | 51 | 46.0% |
| 14 | Vortex (7) | Daily | 40.5% | 0.6 | -70.7% | 27.0% | 89 | 47.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Trump Media lost money across the out-of-sample window in 224 of 224 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Trump Media, Bullish Engulfing on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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