The best indicator for Trump Media
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Trump Media history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Trump Media stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Bullish Engulfing
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Trump Media over ~5.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 37.2% CAGR.
Trump Media on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heikin-Ashi Trend | Daily | 96.5% | 0.78 | -76.1% | 38.8% | 237 | 98.3% |
| 2 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Daily | 35.4% | 0.75 | -41.4% | 31.6% | 38 | 37.2% |
| 3 | Perfect Trend Line | Daily | 38.1% | 0.71 | -65.2% | 33.6% | 131 | 39.9% |
| 4 | Accumulation Swing Index | Daily | 33.0% | 0.68 | -76.8% | 37.7% | 268 | 34.7% |
| 5 | Swing Index | Daily | 33.0% | 0.68 | -76.8% | 37.7% | 268 | 34.7% |
| 6 | ROC (5) | Daily | 32.8% | 0.68 | -64.4% | 30.0% | 120 | 34.6% |
| 7 | Gann HiLo Activator | Daily | 56.8% | 0.66 | -67.2% | 28.6% | 84 | 58.6% |
| 8 | Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | Daily | 45.0% | 0.65 | -81.7% | 33.0% | 103 | 46.8% |
| 9 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 50.5% | 0.64 | -62.2% | 37.4% | 115 | 52.3% |
| 10 | Williams %R (7) | Daily | 29.5% | 0.64 | -63.8% | 28.6% | 112 | 31.2% |
| 11 | MBFX Timing | Daily | 29.5% | 0.64 | -63.8% | 28.6% | 112 | 31.2% |
| 12 | DMI Direction | Daily | 37.3% | 0.61 | -80.0% | 27.5% | 40 | 39.1% |
| 13 | KAMA 10/30 Cross | Daily | 41.3% | 0.61 | -73.8% | 40.0% | 15 | 43.1% |
| 14 | Ehlers SuperSmoother | Daily | 21.1% | 0.59 | -76.0% | 36.6% | 164 | 22.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Trump Media lost money across the out-of-sample window in 224 of 224 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Trump Media, Bullish Engulfing on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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