The best indicator for Diageo
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Diageo history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Diageo stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Diageo over ~35.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR.
Diageo on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.53 | -37.4% | 64.9% | 151 | 0.5% |
| 2 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.53 | -37.4% | 64.9% | 151 | 0.5% |
| 3 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 6.9% | 0.52 | -34.7% | 64.5% | 327 | 0.9% |
| 4 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.5 | -32.9% | 56.2% | 16 | 0.3% |
| 5 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.49 | -33.5% | 66.9% | 124 | -0.7% |
| 6 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.49 | -30.6% | 56.5% | 299 | 0.4% |
| 7 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.52 | -36.5% | 71.4% | 14 | 1.1% |
| 8 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.48 | -32.2% | 64.5% | 76 | -0.8% |
| 9 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.47 | -33.5% | 68.4% | 193 | 0.1% |
| 10 | Demand Index ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.47 | -38.6% | 61.3% | 463 | 1.2% |
| 11 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.46 | -33.5% | 73.2% | 123 | -0.8% |
| 12 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.46 | -36.2% | 72.4% | 105 | 0.4% |
| 13 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.46 | -30.5% | 56.9% | 267 | -0.4% |
| 14 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 5.9% | 0.44 | -37.4% | 75.9% | 58 | -0.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Diageo lost money across the out-of-sample window in 682 of 682 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Diageo, Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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