The best indicator for Diageo
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Diageo history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Diageo stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Bollinger Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Diageo over ~35.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
Diageo on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.53 | -37.4% | 64.5% | 152 | 0.3% |
| 2 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.53 | -37.4% | 64.5% | 152 | 0.3% |
| 3 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.52 | -32.9% | 58.8% | 17 | 0.5% |
| 4 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.53 | -36.5% | 71.4% | 14 | 1.0% |
| 5 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.49 | -33.5% | 66.9% | 124 | -0.8% |
| 6 | Demand Index ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.48 | -38.6% | 61.5% | 468 | 1.2% |
| 7 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.48 | -34.7% | 64.2% | 327 | 0.2% |
| 8 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.47 | -33.5% | 67.7% | 195 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Laguerre RSI ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.47 | -30.7% | 69.6% | 56 | -1.6% |
| 10 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.46 | -36.2% | 71.2% | 104 | 0.3% |
| 11 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.46 | -32.2% | 67.1% | 76 | -1.1% |
| 12 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.45 | -33.5% | 72.6% | 124 | -0.9% |
| 13 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.45 | -33.2% | 58.0% | 231 | 0.2% |
| 14 | SMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.45 | -42.1% | 50.0% | 16 | -0.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Diageo lost money across the out-of-sample window in 682 of 682 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Diageo, Bollinger Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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