The best indicator for Dropbox
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dropbox history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dropbox over ~8.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 20.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 18.5% | 0.81 | -35.1% | 73.9% | 46 | 20.0% |
| 2 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 14.0% | 0.79 | -21.0% | 75.0% | 40 | 15.5% |
| 3 | DeMarker ✓ | Daily | 13.1% | 0.7 | -36.9% | 80.0% | 30 | 14.7% |
| 4 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 13.7% | 0.68 | -36.7% | 76.3% | 59 | 15.2% |
| 5 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 11.8% | 0.68 | -24.7% | 77.5% | 40 | 13.3% |
| 6 | Order-Flow Reversion ✓ | Daily | 11.2% | 0.68 | -21.0% | 77.4% | 31 | 12.7% |
| 7 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 10.4% | 0.68 | -19.2% | 70.0% | 20 | 11.9% |
| 8 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 10.6% | 0.66 | -21.0% | 76.9% | 26 | 12.1% |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | 11.1% | 0.65 | -21.0% | 80.0% | 35 | 12.6% |
| 10 | Fibonacci Bands | Daily | 11.1% | 0.65 | -21.0% | 80.0% | 35 | 12.6% |
| 11 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 8.0% | 0.76 | -12.8% | 91.7% | 12 | 9.5% |
| 12 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | Daily | 11.5% | 0.57 | -36.9% | 68.8% | 32 | 13.1% |
| 13 | Laguerre RSI ✓ | Daily | 9.1% | 0.56 | -21.7% | 60.6% | 66 | 10.6% |
| 14 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.54 | -31.9% | 68.7% | 67 | 12.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dropbox, Stochastic on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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