The best indicator for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Accumulation Swing Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) over ~64.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.3% CAGR.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Accumulation Swing Index ✓ | Daily | 14.5% | 0.76 | -57.7% | 44.4% | 3411 | 2.3% |
| 2 | Swing Index ✓ | Daily | 14.5% | 0.76 | -57.7% | 44.4% | 3411 | 2.3% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 13.8% | 0.73 | -54.3% | 43.2% | 2902 | 1.6% |
| 4 | Ehlers SuperSmoother ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.67 | -60.8% | 43.7% | 2152 | 0.3% |
| 5 | Woodie Pivots ✓ | Daily | 12.5% | 0.67 | -61.3% | 44.6% | 3408 | 0.3% |
| 6 | Rainbow MA ✓ | Daily | 11.6% | 0.63 | -64.0% | 42.9% | 1803 | -0.7% |
| 7 | Disparity (5) ✓ | Daily | 11.4% | 0.62 | -63.1% | 42.9% | 1968 | -0.8% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.6 | -66.3% | 40.3% | 1391 | -1.3% |
| 9 | Gaussian Channel ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.6 | -57.9% | 39.3% | 1156 | -1.7% |
| 10 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.6 | -68.3% | 45.6% | 2127 | -1.3% |
| 11 | FRAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.3% | 0.6 | -71.5% | 43.2% | 1561 | -1.9% |
| 12 | Disparity (10) ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.6 | -66.3% | 40.3% | 1391 | -1.3% |
| 13 | RSI (7) ✓ | Daily | 10.7% | 0.59 | -67.7% | 38.8% | 1178 | -1.6% |
| 14 | Elder Bull Power ✓ | Daily | 10.6% | 0.59 | -67.7% | 38.8% | 1178 | -1.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
16 of 739 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) outright. Another 493 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 199 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | 1 | 1.02× | 2.19× |
| Force Index | 1 | 1.09× | 2.7× |
| McGinley Dynamic | 1 | 1.12× | 2.03× |
| QQE | 1 | 1.17× | 1.43× |
| VWMA vs Price | 1 | 1.22× | 2.52× |
| Price Volume Trend | 1 | 1.32× | 2.48× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Accumulation Swing Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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