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The best indicator for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.

Signaling FLAT right now — Swing Index (Daily) is out of the market. Signal as of 2026-09-10.
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Key levels · as of 2026-09-09

Where Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) stands

815.56
last daily close (2026-09-09)
773.84
200-day simple moving average price 5.4% above
864.38
50-day simple moving average price 5.6% below
414.36–1,062.93
52-week range

Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.

Momentum · Daily

Swing Index

On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) over ~64.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.4% CAGR.

14.9%
CAGR
0.78
Sharpe
-57.7%
Max DD
44.3%
Win rate
1.02
Profit factor
+2.4%
vs Buy&Hold
Chart

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) on the daily chart

The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.

Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.

NOTHING BEAT BUY-AND-HOLD
Full strategy report — every setup ranked out-of-sample, corrected for data-mining, and forward-tracked in public.
Read the verdict
Confluence · Weekly

Best multi-indicator combo

MACDDonchian Breakout

Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.

5.3%
CAGR
0.4
Sharpe
55.9%
Win rate
93
Trades
-7.1%
vs Buy&Hold
Best by timeframe

The winner on each chart

Daily
Swing Index
+2.4% · Sharpe 0.78
Weekly
Linear Regression Slope
-2.3% · Sharpe 0.54
Full results

Every indicator, ranked

Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.

#IndicatorTFCAGRSharpeMax DDWinTradesvs B&H
1Swing Index Daily14.9%0.78-57.7%44.3%33882.4%
2Accumulation Swing Index Daily14.9%0.77-57.7%44.3%33892.4%
3Heikin-Ashi Trend Daily13.7%0.72-54.3%43.3%28921.2%
4Woodie Pivots Daily12.9%0.69-61.7%44.7%33910.4%
5Ehlers SuperSmoother Daily12.8%0.68-60.8%43.8%21390.3%
6Rainbow MA Daily11.7%0.64-64.0%43.0%1792-0.8%
7Disparity (5) Daily11.6%0.63-63.1%42.9%1956-0.9%
8EMA-10 Trend Daily11.2%0.61-66.3%40.4%1384-1.3%
9Gaussian Channel Daily10.8%0.61-57.9%39.3%1149-1.7%
10Disparity (10) Daily11.2%0.61-66.3%40.4%1384-1.3%
11McGinley Dynamic Daily11.2%0.6-64.0%34.7%756-1.3%
12RSI (7) Daily10.9%0.6-67.7%38.9%1171-1.6%
13Stochastic Fast (5,3) Daily10.8%0.6-68.3%45.6%2116-1.7%
14Elder Bull Power Daily10.8%0.6-67.7%38.9%1171-1.7%

= held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.

The leverage question

What it would take to beat buy & hold on Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

16 of 739 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) outright. Another 493 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 199 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.

IndicatorBeats B&H unlevered Leverage neededLeverage survived
Chande-Kroll Stop (fast)11.02×2.19×
Force Index11.09×2.7×
McGinley Dynamic11.12×2.03×
QQE11.17×1.43×
VWMA vs Price11.22×2.52×
Price Volume Trend11.32×2.48×

Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way

What this means

For Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Swing Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.

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