The best indicator for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Swing Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) over ~64.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.4% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swing Index ✓ | Daily | 14.9% | 0.78 | -57.7% | 44.3% | 3388 | 2.4% |
| 2 | Accumulation Swing Index ✓ | Daily | 14.9% | 0.77 | -57.7% | 44.3% | 3389 | 2.4% |
| 3 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Daily | 13.7% | 0.72 | -54.3% | 43.3% | 2892 | 1.2% |
| 4 | Woodie Pivots ✓ | Daily | 12.9% | 0.69 | -61.7% | 44.7% | 3391 | 0.4% |
| 5 | Ehlers SuperSmoother ✓ | Daily | 12.8% | 0.68 | -60.8% | 43.8% | 2139 | 0.3% |
| 6 | Rainbow MA ✓ | Daily | 11.7% | 0.64 | -64.0% | 43.0% | 1792 | -0.8% |
| 7 | Disparity (5) ✓ | Daily | 11.6% | 0.63 | -63.1% | 42.9% | 1956 | -0.9% |
| 8 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Daily | 11.2% | 0.61 | -66.3% | 40.4% | 1384 | -1.3% |
| 9 | Gaussian Channel ✓ | Daily | 10.8% | 0.61 | -57.9% | 39.3% | 1149 | -1.7% |
| 10 | Disparity (10) ✓ | Daily | 11.2% | 0.61 | -66.3% | 40.4% | 1384 | -1.3% |
| 11 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Daily | 11.2% | 0.6 | -64.0% | 34.7% | 756 | -1.3% |
| 12 | RSI (7) ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.6 | -67.7% | 38.9% | 1171 | -1.6% |
| 13 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) ✓ | Daily | 10.8% | 0.6 | -68.3% | 45.6% | 2116 | -1.7% |
| 14 | Elder Bull Power ✓ | Daily | 10.8% | 0.6 | -67.7% | 38.9% | 1171 | -1.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Swing Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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