The best indicator for Dutch Bros
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dutch Bros history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic Fast (5,3)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dutch Bros over ~4.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 46.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) ✓ | Weekly | 55.4% | 1.18 | -34.6% | 51.7% | 29 | 46.2% |
| 2 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 30.8% | 0.9 | -35.2% | 72.2% | 18 | 17.5% |
| 3 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 32.1% | 0.87 | -49.0% | 80.0% | 15 | 18.7% |
| 4 | DeMarker ✓ | Daily | 23.8% | 0.78 | -30.8% | 68.4% | 19 | 10.5% |
| 5 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 28.9% | 0.78 | -43.6% | 58.8% | 17 | 19.7% |
| 6 | Ehlers Relative Vigor ✓ | Daily | 27.1% | 0.77 | -57.0% | 42.3% | 104 | 13.7% |
| 7 | Super Smoother (Ehlers) | Daily | 22.4% | 0.76 | -36.3% | 47.1% | 70 | 9.1% |
| 8 | Relative Vigor Index | Daily | 25.8% | 0.75 | -48.2% | 40.6% | 96 | 12.5% |
| 9 | Derivative Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 19.6% | 0.75 | -34.2% | 50.0% | 72 | 6.2% |
| 10 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 37.3% | 0.93 | -40.9% | 83.3% | 12 | 28.1% |
| 11 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 36.2% | 1.08 | -39.0% | 90.0% | 10 | 22.8% |
| 12 | Jurik MA (approx.) ✓ | Daily | 21.7% | 0.7 | -39.5% | 44.6% | 101 | 8.3% |
| 13 | Arnaud Legoux MA | Daily | 22.1% | 0.69 | -38.1% | 43.6% | 101 | 8.8% |
| 14 | Schaff Trend Cycle | Daily | 6.8% | 0.69 | -8.8% | 63.6% | 33 | -6.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dutch Bros, Stochastic Fast (5,3) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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