The best indicator for Dutch Bros
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dutch Bros history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Dutch Bros stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Stochastic Fast (5,3)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dutch Bros over ~5.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 54.6% CAGR.
Dutch Bros on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) ✓ | Weekly | 52.2% | 1.15 | -34.6% | 51.7% | 29 | 54.6% |
| 2 | Ehlers Relative Vigor | Daily | 22.1% | 0.68 | -57.0% | 40.0% | 110 | 21.4% |
| 3 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 21.7% | 0.68 | -49.0% | 75.0% | 16 | 20.9% |
| 4 | Super Smoother (Ehlers) | Daily | 18.5% | 0.68 | -36.3% | 46.6% | 73 | 17.7% |
| 5 | Schaff Trend Cycle ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.67 | -8.8% | 63.6% | 33 | 5.7% |
| 6 | Relative Vigor Index | Daily | 20.8% | 0.66 | -48.2% | 38.6% | 101 | 20.0% |
| 7 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 26.8% | 0.76 | -40.9% | 76.9% | 13 | 29.2% |
| 8 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 19.4% | 0.62 | -43.6% | 55.6% | 18 | 21.8% |
| 9 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 25.3% | 0.84 | -39.0% | 81.8% | 11 | 24.5% |
| 10 | Piercing Line ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.61 | -12.1% | 48.0% | 25 | 7.1% |
| 11 | Demand Index ✓ | Weekly | 27.2% | 0.74 | -41.6% | 83.3% | 12 | 29.6% |
| 12 | DeMarker ✓ | Daily | 15.4% | 0.59 | -30.8% | 65.0% | 20 | 14.6% |
| 13 | Intraday Momentum Index | Daily | 16.3% | 0.58 | -49.5% | 68.4% | 19 | 15.6% |
| 14 | KDJ ✓ | Weekly | 16.9% | 0.57 | -43.1% | 52.6% | 19 | 19.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Dutch Bros
37 of 271 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Dutch Bros outright. Another 33 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 23 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorentzian Classification | 2 | none needed | 4.34× |
| Vortex | 1 | none needed | 2.97× |
| Connors RSI-2 | 1 | none needed | 3.53× |
| Elder Ray (Bull/Bear Power) | 1 | none needed | 3.33× |
| Chaikin Money Flow | 1 | none needed | 3.06× |
| Ease of Movement | 1 | none needed | 2.63× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Dutch Bros, Stochastic Fast (5,3) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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