The best indicator for BP
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real BP history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where BP stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Ultimate Oscillator
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for BP over ~64.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.8% CAGR.
BP on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ultimate Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 9.3% | 0.57 | -62.3% | 77.8% | 81 | -1.8% |
| 2 | Accumulation Swing Index | Daily | 9.5% | 0.57 | -89.0% | 44.7% | 3589 | -1.6% |
| 3 | Swing Index | Daily | 9.3% | 0.56 | -89.0% | 44.6% | 3594 | -1.7% |
| 4 | Ehlers SuperSmoother ✓ | Daily | 8.9% | 0.54 | -77.6% | 41.9% | 2167 | -2.2% |
| 5 | Woodie Pivots | Daily | 8.7% | 0.53 | -86.3% | 44.6% | 3547 | -2.4% |
| 6 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.53 | -58.1% | 66.7% | 24 | -1.6% |
| 7 | Q-Stick ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 0.52 | -53.2% | 43.7% | 1381 | -2.7% |
| 8 | Stoch RSI (fast) ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.52 | -64.3% | 42.1% | 1710 | -2.6% |
| 9 | FRAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.52 | -66.2% | 39.7% | 1334 | -2.8% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.51 | -55.6% | 50.0% | 44 | -2.4% |
| 11 | Chande Forecast Osc. | Daily | 8.0% | 0.5 | -81.7% | 43.3% | 1795 | -3.1% |
| 12 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 9.4% | 0.5 | -68.4% | 33.3% | 183 | -1.7% |
| 13 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.5 | -50.2% | 51.1% | 45 | -2.4% |
| 14 | PMax ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.53 | -48.7% | 85.7% | 14 | -1.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on BP
47 of 734 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on BP outright. Another 104 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 143 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donchian 10 Break | 2 | none needed | 2.36× |
| Demand Index | 1 | 1.47× | 1.65× |
| Ehlers Roofing Filter | 1 | 1.5× | 2.08× |
| DEMA 20/50 Cross | 1 | 2.08× | 2.51× |
| Waddah Attar Explosion | 1 | 2.45× | 3.77× |
| MACD | 1 | none needed | 1.68× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For BP, Ultimate Oscillator on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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