The best indicator for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Volatility Stop (ATR)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) over ~42.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.0% CAGR.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility Stop (ATR) ✓ | Daily | 12.0% | 0.72 | -58.3% | 45.8% | 306 | -3.0% |
| 2 | Ehlers Reflex ✓ | Daily | 11.1% | 0.7 | -30.1% | 56.1% | 358 | -3.9% |
| 3 | Supertrend (7,3) ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.68 | -50.4% | 49.1% | 161 | -3.7% |
| 4 | Pivot Point SuperTrend ✓ | Daily | 10.7% | 0.67 | -39.6% | 52.1% | 94 | -4.3% |
| 5 | Aroon ✓ | Daily | 10.6% | 0.66 | -53.1% | 46.2% | 353 | -4.4% |
| 6 | Aroon Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 10.6% | 0.66 | -53.1% | 46.2% | 353 | -4.4% |
| 7 | Donchian 10 Break ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.66 | -56.0% | 47.7% | 214 | -4.1% |
| 8 | Instantaneous Trendline ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.65 | -40.7% | 44.0% | 402 | -4.5% |
| 9 | Half Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.6% | 0.65 | -51.1% | 44.4% | 313 | -4.4% |
| 10 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Daily | 10.7% | 0.64 | -69.9% | 48.7% | 156 | -4.3% |
| 11 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 9.0% | 0.64 | -35.6% | 78.9% | 128 | -6.0% |
| 12 | HalfTrend ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.64 | -51.1% | 44.4% | 313 | -4.5% |
| 13 | Hull MA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.0% | 0.64 | -45.4% | 49.4% | 334 | -5.0% |
| 14 | Supertrend (20,3) ✓ | Daily | 10.8% | 0.64 | -60.7% | 51.3% | 156 | -4.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
2 of 660 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) outright. Another 402 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 206 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Williams %R (50) | 1 | 2.94× | 3.79× |
| McGinley Dynamic | 1 | none needed | 3.91× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.94× | 3.94× |
| Awesome Oscillator | — | 1.28× | 3.25× |
| QQE | — | 1.32× | 2.18× |
| Even Better Sinewave | — | 1.33× | 3.45× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Volatility Stop (ATR) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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