The best indicator for Affirm
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Affirm history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Affirm stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Center-of-Gravity
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Affirm over ~5.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 77.0% CAGR.
Affirm on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Center-of-Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 69.7% | 1.16 | -45.5% | 38.5% | 26 | 77.0% |
| 2 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 40.2% | 0.86 | -39.2% | 61.1% | 18 | 47.6% |
| 3 | Elder Impulse ✓ | Weekly | 34.3% | 0.86 | -31.1% | 47.6% | 21 | 41.7% |
| 4 | Disparity (10) ✓ | Weekly | 40.2% | 0.86 | -39.2% | 61.1% | 18 | 47.6% |
| 5 | Arnaud Legoux MA ✓ | Weekly | 40.4% | 0.85 | -41.6% | 47.4% | 19 | 47.8% |
| 6 | CCI (50) ✓ | Daily | 39.2% | 0.83 | -51.4% | 35.7% | 28 | 43.3% |
| 7 | Ehlers Cyber Cycle ✓ | Weekly | 41.8% | 0.83 | -53.8% | 32.1% | 28 | 49.2% |
| 8 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Daily | 37.9% | 0.82 | -48.9% | 44.8% | 29 | 42.0% |
| 9 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Daily | 38.0% | 0.81 | -69.1% | 43.6% | 39 | 42.1% |
| 10 | Exponential Hull MA ✓ | Weekly | 38.9% | 0.85 | -58.6% | 42.9% | 14 | 46.3% |
| 11 | Stochastic Slow (21,5) ✓ | Weekly | 35.8% | 0.79 | -71.5% | 60.0% | 15 | 43.2% |
| 12 | FRAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 35.4% | 0.79 | -57.2% | 52.2% | 23 | 42.8% |
| 13 | Volume Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 31.9% | 0.78 | -47.0% | 42.5% | 40 | 36.0% |
| 14 | WMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 35.2% | 0.78 | -62.4% | 41.4% | 58 | 39.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Affirm
68 of 300 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Affirm outright. Another 106 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 53 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRAMA 30 Trend | 1 | 1.39× | 2.42× |
| RSI Trend (>50) | 1 | none needed | 3.83× |
| Hull MA Trend | 1 | none needed | 2.31× |
| Aroon | 1 | none needed | 2.65× |
| Vortex | 1 | none needed | 4.57× |
| TRIX | 1 | none needed | 2.22× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Affirm, Fisher Center-of-Gravity on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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