The best indicator for Affirm
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Affirm history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Affirm stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
EMA-10 Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Affirm over ~5.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 43.6% CAGR.
Affirm on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Center-of-Gravity | Weekly | 57.4% | 1.04 | -45.5% | 34.5% | 29 | 66.1% |
| 2 | Elder Impulse | Weekly | 31.8% | 0.83 | -31.1% | 50.0% | 22 | 40.5% |
| 3 | EMA-10 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 34.9% | 0.8 | -39.2% | 57.9% | 19 | 43.6% |
| 4 | Exponential Hull MA ✓ | Weekly | 34.2% | 0.8 | -58.6% | 46.7% | 15 | 43.0% |
| 5 | Disparity (10) ✓ | Weekly | 34.9% | 0.8 | -39.2% | 57.9% | 19 | 43.6% |
| 6 | Arnaud Legoux MA ✓ | Weekly | 34.1% | 0.78 | -41.6% | 40.0% | 20 | 42.9% |
| 7 | Ehlers Cyber Cycle ✓ | Weekly | 36.9% | 0.78 | -53.8% | 30.0% | 30 | 45.6% |
| 8 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Daily | 34.8% | 0.77 | -69.1% | 41.5% | 41 | 40.4% |
| 9 | Volume Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 29.9% | 0.75 | -47.0% | 42.9% | 42 | 35.5% |
| 10 | Stochastic Slow (21,5) ✓ | Weekly | 32.2% | 0.75 | -71.5% | 60.0% | 15 | 40.9% |
| 11 | FRAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 32.1% | 0.75 | -57.2% | 47.8% | 23 | 40.8% |
| 12 | CCI (50) ✓ | Daily | 31.4% | 0.74 | -51.4% | 36.4% | 33 | 37.0% |
| 13 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Daily | 31.5% | 0.74 | -48.9% | 46.9% | 32 | 37.1% |
| 14 | Least Squares MA ✓ | Weekly | 33.3% | 0.74 | -63.1% | 50.0% | 18 | 42.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Affirm
68 of 300 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Affirm outright. Another 106 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 53 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRAMA 30 Trend | 1 | 1.39× | 2.42× |
| RSI Trend (>50) | 1 | none needed | 3.83× |
| Hull MA Trend | 1 | none needed | 2.31× |
| Aroon | 1 | none needed | 2.65× |
| Vortex | 1 | none needed | 4.57× |
| TRIX | 1 | none needed | 2.22× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Affirm, EMA-10 Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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