The best indicator for Apple Inc. (AAPL)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Apple Inc. (AAPL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Apple Inc. (AAPL) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Chande-Kroll Stop (fast)
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Apple Inc. (AAPL) over ~3.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.0% CAGR.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Apple Inc. (AAPL) — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) ✓ | 4-Hour | 22.6% | 1.11 | -16.9% | 47.4% | 114 | 4.0% |
| 2 | Relative Vigor Index ✓ | Weekly | 21.5% | 0.83 | -62.9% | 53.8% | 160 | 2.0% |
| 3 | Twiggs Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 22.2% | 0.83 | -54.8% | 54.1% | 122 | 2.8% |
| 4 | Ultimate Oscillator ✓ | 4-Hour | 28.3% | 1.58 | -10.3% | 80.0% | 10 | 9.7% |
| 5 | Rate of Change ✓ | Weekly | 22.4% | 0.81 | -69.4% | 47.6% | 124 | 2.9% |
| 6 | Volume Zone Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 21.0% | 0.81 | -65.9% | 55.7% | 212 | 1.6% |
| 7 | Ehlers Reflex ✓ | 1-Hour | 27.6% | 1.38 | -16.4% | 50.3% | 165 | 1.8% |
| 8 | T3 (Tillson) ✓ | Weekly | 21.0% | 0.8 | -52.9% | 49.3% | 152 | 1.6% |
| 9 | FRAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 19.3% | 0.8 | -66.4% | 51.4% | 210 | -0.1% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 18.9% | 0.79 | -38.7% | 51.7% | 174 | -0.6% |
| 11 | Price Volume Trend ✓ | Daily | 21.8% | 0.79 | -77.4% | 42.5% | 487 | 2.3% |
| 12 | Force Index ✓ | Weekly | 21.2% | 0.79 | -56.3% | 54.1% | 146 | 1.8% |
| 13 | Ehlers Relative Vigor ✓ | Weekly | 20.0% | 0.79 | -63.8% | 57.1% | 184 | 0.6% |
| 14 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Daily | 20.3% | 0.78 | -54.4% | 46.2% | 171 | 0.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Apple Inc. (AAPL)
12 of 1348 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Apple Inc. (AAPL) outright. Another 1041 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 180 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 2 | 1.51× | 3.98× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | 1 | 1.44× | 4.29× |
| EMA 30 Trend | 1 | 1.47× | 4.54× |
| LSMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | 1.57× | 6.61× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | 1 | 1.66× | 4.96× |
| VIDYA | 1 | 1.72× | 7.9× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Apple Inc. (AAPL), Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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