Does anything beat buy & hold on Siren (SIREN)?
Every setup we tested on Siren (SIREN) — ranked out-of-sample, corrected for multiple testing, and forward-tracked in public from the day this page published. The honest answer is the headline.
Beat buy-and-hold in both windows — but can't be told apart from selection luck.
Beat buy-and-hold in both the full window and out-of-sample but its OOS Sharpe 3.23 did not clear the 4.78 selection hurdle (best-of-N luck cannot be ruled out). Buy-and-hold benchmark: +665.6% CAGR over 1.7 years (>+999% CAGR in the out-of-sample window).
Educational research from historical backtests — not investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results.
Siren (SIREN): Beat Buy-and-Hold in Both Windows, Couldn't Beat the Selection Hurdle
Crypto sets a brutal baseline: Siren compounds at +665.6% annualized just for holding, and it charges drawdowns near -85.5% for the privilege. Against that backdrop we ran 304 indicator configurations on SIREN. The best of them — Volume Zone Oscillator on the daily timeframe — beat buy-and-hold in both the training and holdout windows, with a profitable out-of-sample trade profile across 47 trades. That is genuinely uncommon here. But 'best of 304' is exactly the phrase that should make you slow down, which is what the second paragraph is for.
When you pick the winner from 304 attempts, the result is partly signal and partly luck of the draw. Our hurdle corrects for that: with this many tries and 0.5 years of holdout data, an out-of-sample Sharpe needs to clear 4.78 before we trust it. This one landed at 3.23 — profitable, but statistically indistinguishable from the luckiest of hundreds of tries. Add that crypto structure keeps changing — new venues, new participants, shifting volatility regimes — and a pattern from the past has no obligation to repeat. Treat this as a research lead, not an edge.
Every figure above is computed from our own backtests — nothing is estimated or invented. Hypothetical results; not investment advice.
Top setups as mechanical rules
Exactly as the backtest defined them — no discretionary steps, no hidden filters.
Volume Zone Oscillator
Mechanical rule (exactly as backtested): Khalil's signed-volume oscillator — long while volume flow is positive and not overbought. Signals are evaluated at daily-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side, long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 3.23 · alpha >+999% · 12 trades over 0.5 yrs.
Lorentzian Classification
Mechanical rule (exactly as backtested): k-nearest-neighbor classifier over oscillator features (Lorentzian distance) — long when the most-similar past bars led higher. Signals are evaluated at daily-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side, long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 2.99 · alpha >+999% · 18 trades over 0.5 yrs.
Fisher Transform
Mechanical rule (exactly as backtested): Long while the Fisher Transform turns up above its trigger. Signals are evaluated at daily-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side, long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 2.79 · alpha >+999% · 14 trades over 0.5 yrs.
Since publication — including if it loses
The forward record is just getting started — the gap between the two is the honest score. Marked to market nightly from real prices, rules frozen at publication, as of 2026-07-02. Currently FLAT.
We tested 304 setups (indicator × parameters × timeframe) on Siren (SIREN). Only setups with ≥30 trades qualify (90 did). Setups are ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe — the last ~30% of history, which standard-parameter rules never saw during selection. Because picking the best of 304 tries mines even the holdout, the VALIDATED verdict additionally requires the top setup’s OOS Sharpe to clear a selection hurdle of 4.78 (√(2 ln N)/√T) AND positive alpha in both windows. Of the eligible setups, 6.7% had positive out-of-sample alpha (median OOS Sharpe 2.05) — the table below is truncated, but this summary covers all of them. Full recipe: methodology · the engine’s contract lives in the repo as STRATEGY_METHODOLOGY.md.
Top 20 of 90 eligible setups
Ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe. Full + out-of-sample columns, costs included. Hypothetical.
| # | Setup | TF | Total ret | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | α vs B&H | OOS Sharpe | OOS α | OOS trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volume Zone Oscillator | Daily | >+999% | 1.92 | -85.5% | 42.6% | 47 | +423.9% | 3.23 | >+999% | 12 |
| 2 | Lorentzian Classification | Daily | >+999% | 1.55 | -76.1% | 48.3% | 58 | -270.5% | 2.99 | >+999% | 18 |
| 3 | Fisher Transform | Daily | >+999% | 1.73 | -65.6% | 47.6% | 42 | +49.1% | 2.79 | >+999% | 14 |
| 4 | Ehlers Relative Vigor | Daily | >+999% | 1.69 | -65.8% | 51.4% | 35 | -32.6% | 2.7 | <-999% | 11 |
| 5 | Momentum | Daily | >+999% | 1.68 | -83.6% | 50.0% | 32 | -280.2% | 2.61 | <-999% | 10 |
| 6 | ROC (10) | Daily | >+999% | 1.68 | -83.6% | 50.0% | 32 | -280.2% | 2.61 | <-999% | 10 |
| 7 | Momentum (10) | Daily | >+999% | 1.68 | -83.6% | 50.0% | 32 | -280.2% | 2.61 | <-999% | 10 |
| 8 | ROC (5) | Daily | +983.7% | 1.53 | -74.9% | 57.4% | 47 | -365.4% | 2.58 | <-999% | 15 |
| 9 | Relative Vigor Index | Daily | >+999% | 1.7 | -65.8% | 40.0% | 35 | -12.0% | 2.54 | <-999% | 12 |
| 10 | KDJ | Daily | >+999% | 1.71 | -66.3% | 51.4% | 35 | +83.0% | 2.53 | <-999% | 13 |
| 11 | Vortex (7) | Daily | +778.3% | 1.53 | -85.3% | 54.3% | 35 | -411.4% | 2.53 | <-999% | 11 |
| 12 | Camarilla Pivots | Daily | +686.4% | 1.16 | -80.9% | 59.7% | 77 | -433.5% | 2.51 | >+999% | 22 |
| 13 | FRAMA 10/30 Cross | Daily | +513.2% | 1.35 | -81.1% | 61.8% | 34 | -478.3% | 2.51 | <-999% | 12 |
| 14 | Fibonacci Pivots | Daily | +735.0% | 1.18 | -78.4% | 60.3% | 58 | -421.7% | 2.49 | >+999% | 17 |
| 15 | Chande Momentum Osc. | Daily | >+999% | 1.65 | -91.1% | 39.4% | 33 | -317.5% | 2.49 | <-999% | 10 |
| 16 | Detrended Price Osc. | Daily | +918.8% | 1.15 | -77.3% | 60.9% | 46 | -379.5% | 2.36 | >+999% | 13 |
| 17 | Stoch RSI (fast) | Daily | >+999% | 1.51 | -67.8% | 54.0% | 50 | -297.8% | 2.36 | <-999% | 19 |
| 18 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) | Daily | >+999% | 1.53 | -86.6% | 54.7% | 53 | -279.9% | 2.35 | <-999% | 17 |
| 19 | Bollinger %B | Daily | +351.7% | 1.43 | -95.2% | 46.9% | 32 | -525.1% | 2.32 | <-999% | 10 |
| 20 | Elder Impulse | Daily | +756.2% | 1.38 | -69.4% | 51.1% | 47 | -416.7% | 2.3 | <-999% | 15 |
Hypothetical backtests with 0.08%/side costs. Not investment advice — see the full disclaimer.
These are historical backtests of mechanical rules. They are educational research, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not tailored to you. Educational information only — not investment advice. Hypothetical backtested results; past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk of loss.