Does anything beat buy & hold on Clean Energy (ICLN)?
Every setup we tested on Clean Energy (ICLN) — ranked out-of-sample, corrected for multiple testing, and forward-tracked in public from the day this page published. The honest answer is the headline.
Beat buy-and-hold in both windows — but can't be told apart from selection luck.
Beat buy-and-hold in both the full window and out-of-sample but its OOS Sharpe 0.69 did not clear the 1.56 selection hurdle (best-of-N luck cannot be ruled out). Buy-and-hold benchmark: -3.0% CAGR over 17.9 years (-6.4% CAGR in the out-of-sample window).
Educational research from historical backtests — not investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results.
Clean Energy (ICLN): Markov Regime (Confirmed) Beat the Index, But Couldn't Beat the Odds
Broad index funds like Clean Energy are diversified by construction, which makes them stubbornly hard to beat — most of what looks like edge in a backtest is just the market's own return, rearranged. Here the picture is genuinely mixed. Out of 741 indicator configurations we tested on ICLN, the strongest was Markov Regime (Confirmed) on the daily timeframe. It outperformed buy-and-hold in both the training and out-of-sample windows, with a profitable trade profile across 67 out-of-sample trades. That is more than most setups on this asset manage, and less than what we would call validated.
Read the figures with the selection problem in mind. An out-of-sample Sharpe of 0.69 sounds fine until you remember it was chosen as the best of hundreds of attempts; our hurdle of 1.56 exists precisely to discount that luck, and this setup did not clear it. The out-of-sample alpha of +16.0% over 5.4 years, a 53.7% win rate, and a -39.5% drawdown describe one historical path, nothing more. Only 61.2% of setups beat buy-and-hold at all here, while buy-and-hold itself compounded at -3.0%. Market regimes shift; past performance carries no promise about future results.
Every figure above is computed from our own backtests — nothing is estimated or invented. Hypothetical results; not investment advice.
The setups that ranked, and what they are
Fully mechanical — no discretionary steps, no hidden filters. We name the indicator and publish its record; we keep the settings.
Markov Regime (Confirmed)
What it is: A statistical regime model: it estimates which market regime is in force and holds only while the odds favour the bullish one. Long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting. The parameters we tested are not published.
How it was tested: signals evaluated at daily-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side. Same engine, same cost model, same out-of-sample split as every other number on this site.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 0.69 · alpha +16.0% · 42 trades over 5.4 yrs.
Bullish Engulfing
What it is: A market-structure rule: it reacts to swing structure and prior levels rather than to a smoothed average. Long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting. The parameters we tested are not published.
How it was tested: signals evaluated at weekly-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side. Same engine, same cost model, same out-of-sample split as every other number on this site.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 0.56 · alpha +12.1% · 12 trades over 5.4 yrs.
Morning Star
What it is: A market-structure rule: it reacts to swing structure and prior levels rather than to a smoothed average. Long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting. The parameters we tested are not published.
How it was tested: signals evaluated at weekly-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side. Same engine, same cost model, same out-of-sample split as every other number on this site.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 0.52 · alpha +11.1% · 13 trades over 5.4 yrs.
Since publication — including if it loses
The setup is ahead so far — over a window this short that is mostly noise. Marked to market nightly from real prices, rules frozen at publication, as of 2026-09-09. Currently FLAT.
We tested 741 setups (indicator × parameters × timeframe) on Clean Energy (ICLN). Only setups with ≥30 trades qualify (580 did). Setups are ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe — the last ~30% of history, which standard-parameter rules never saw during selection. Because picking the best of 741 tries mines even the holdout, the VALIDATED verdict additionally requires the top setup’s OOS Sharpe to clear a selection hurdle of 1.56 (√(2 ln N)/√T) AND positive alpha in both windows. Of the eligible setups, 61.2% had positive out-of-sample alpha (median OOS Sharpe -0.18) — the table below is truncated, but this summary covers all of them. How we test: methodology. The scoring contract is published in full; the parameters of each individual setup are not.
Top 20 of 580 eligible setups
Ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe. Full + out-of-sample columns, costs included. Hypothetical.
| # | Setup | TF | Total ret | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | α vs B&H | OOS Sharpe | OOS α | OOS trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Markov Regime (Confirmed) | Daily | +80.4% | 0.34 | -39.5% | 53.7% | 67 | +6.4% | 0.69 | +16.0% | 42 |
| 2 | Bullish Engulfing | Weekly | +13.0% | 0.12 | -40.3% | 71.0% | 31 | +3.4% | 0.56 | +12.1% | 12 |
| 3 | Morning Star | Weekly | +72.5% | 0.29 | -41.5% | 58.5% | 41 | +5.8% | 0.52 | +11.1% | 13 |
| 4 | Bollinger Squeeze | Daily | +132.3% | 0.48 | -25.8% | 36.8% | 38 | +7.8% | 0.46 | +11.3% | 10 |
| 5 | Markov Regime | Daily | +60.4% | 0.25 | -54.7% | 46.6% | 131 | +5.7% | 0.45 | +12.9% | 51 |
| 6 | Pascal's Weighted MA | Weekly | +122.0% | 0.35 | -39.1% | 40.4% | 47 | +7.2% | 0.44 | +11.6% | 13 |
| 7 | Parabolic SAR (fast) | Weekly | +90.6% | 0.28 | -59.5% | 48.6% | 70 | +6.4% | 0.38 | +10.8% | 20 |
| 8 | Fisher Center-of-Gravity | Weekly | +53.6% | 0.23 | -44.9% | 64.9% | 97 | +5.1% | 0.38 | +9.7% | 31 |
| 9 | Jurik MA (approx.) | Weekly | +298.7% | 0.53 | -28.7% | 45.2% | 84 | +10.7% | 0.37 | +10.3% | 26 |
| 10 | Bullish Engulfing | Daily | +6.8% | 0.09 | -33.2% | 51.4% | 107 | +3.4% | 0.37 | +10.2% | 38 |
| 11 | Ehlers Relative Vigor | Weekly | +18.5% | 0.15 | -67.1% | 53.1% | 81 | +3.7% | 0.35 | +10.4% | 26 |
| 12 | Cascade Z-Score | Daily | +278.8% | 0.5 | -32.3% | 39.5% | 129 | +10.7% | 0.31 | +10.4% | 38 |
| 13 | Volume Oscillator | Daily | +64.8% | 0.27 | -44.2% | 45.6% | 226 | +5.8% | 0.3 | +9.8% | 63 |
| 14 | Ehlers Cyber Cycle | Weekly | +227.0% | 0.4 | -43.8% | 53.9% | 89 | +9.5% | 0.29 | +9.1% | 30 |
| 15 | Geometric MA | Daily | +347.5% | 0.56 | -33.3% | 41.9% | 203 | +11.7% | 0.28 | +9.8% | 58 |
| 16 | Bollinger Breakout | Daily | +61.5% | 0.26 | -44.4% | 43.7% | 71 | +5.7% | 0.28 | +9.5% | 20 |
| 17 | CMO (21) | Daily | +302.0% | 0.51 | -43.1% | 41.9% | 203 | +11.1% | 0.27 | +9.7% | 62 |
| 18 | Hull Suite | Daily | +365.5% | 0.54 | -35.5% | 46.3% | 95 | +12.0% | 0.26 | +9.7% | 32 |
| 19 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | +122.0% | 0.35 | -47.9% | 40.0% | 70 | +7.6% | 0.26 | +9.4% | 18 |
| 20 | Zero-Lag MACD | Weekly | +80.1% | 0.27 | -57.1% | 50.0% | 76 | +6.0% | 0.26 | +8.4% | 25 |
Hypothetical backtests with 0.08%/side costs. Not investment advice — see the full disclaimer.
These are historical backtests of mechanical rules. They are educational research, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not tailored to you. Educational information only — not investment advice. Hypothetical backtested results; past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk of loss.