The best indicator for Vale
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Vale history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Vale stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Coral Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Vale over ~24.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR.
Vale on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coral Trend ✓ | Weekly | 18.3% | 0.73 | -46.5% | 45.8% | 24 | 5.0% |
| 2 | WMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 17.9% | 0.72 | -58.8% | 50.0% | 26 | 4.6% |
| 3 | EMA 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 17.7% | 0.71 | -52.7% | 54.2% | 24 | 4.4% |
| 4 | SMA 5/20 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 17.8% | 0.71 | -58.1% | 51.5% | 33 | 4.5% |
| 5 | Std Error Channel ✓ | Weekly | 16.3% | 0.71 | -47.0% | 45.5% | 44 | 3.0% |
| 6 | Inverse Fisher RSI ✓ | Weekly | 17.6% | 0.7 | -60.4% | 50.0% | 42 | 4.3% |
| 7 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 17.4% | 0.7 | -58.4% | 57.1% | 35 | 4.1% |
| 8 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Weekly | 16.9% | 0.69 | -51.8% | 44.4% | 27 | 3.6% |
| 9 | Correlation Trend ✓ | Weekly | 16.9% | 0.69 | -51.8% | 44.4% | 27 | 3.6% |
| 10 | TRIMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 16.0% | 0.68 | -46.6% | 44.2% | 86 | 2.8% |
| 11 | TRIX (9) ✓ | Weekly | 16.5% | 0.68 | -51.9% | 50.0% | 20 | 3.1% |
| 12 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 16.1% | 0.67 | -54.7% | 42.9% | 21 | 2.8% |
| 13 | Ehlers Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 15.9% | 0.66 | -65.4% | 51.7% | 29 | 2.5% |
| 14 | Coppock Curve ✓ | Weekly | 15.7% | 0.65 | -56.2% | 44.4% | 27 | 2.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Vale
118 of 637 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Vale outright. Another 223 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 179 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarker (14) | 2 | none needed | 2.37× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | 1 | 1.04× | 1.91× |
| Linear Regression Slope | 1 | 1.12× | 2.05× |
| Correlation Trend | 1 | 1.12× | 2.05× |
| Zero-Lag LSMA | 1 | 1.15× | 2.44× |
| Gann HiLo Activator | 1 | 1.17× | 2.06× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Vale, Coral Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More stock
Get alerted when Vale’s signal flips
We track Vale daily. Its backtested best indicator, Coral Trend (Weekly), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.