The best indicator for Toyota
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Toyota history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Toyota stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Connors RSI-2
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Toyota over ~46.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.6% CAGR.
Toyota on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.62 | -36.2% | 65.3% | 118 | -1.6% |
| 2 | Markov Regime (Confirmed) ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.52 | -27.6% | 53.7% | 393 | -3.5% |
| 3 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.52 | -43.6% | 57.1% | 282 | -1.5% |
| 4 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.52 | -28.9% | 65.2% | 115 | -2.9% |
| 5 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.52 | -54.0% | 47.8% | 46 | -1.7% |
| 6 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.51 | -40.7% | 61.9% | 21 | -1.3% |
| 7 | WMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.0% | 0.51 | -39.4% | 73.1% | 26 | -1.1% |
| 8 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.51 | -42.6% | 41.2% | 51 | -1.3% |
| 9 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.0% | 0.51 | -41.8% | 63.3% | 30 | -1.2% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.0% | 0.5 | -48.5% | 65.5% | 29 | -1.3% |
| 11 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.49 | -34.8% | 66.1% | 289 | -2.8% |
| 12 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.3% | 0.49 | -45.6% | 50.0% | 46 | -1.9% |
| 13 | WMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.49 | -41.0% | 66.7% | 27 | -1.7% |
| 14 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.48 | -35.7% | 74.8% | 147 | -2.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Toyota
28 of 709 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Toyota outright. Another 268 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 172 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Williams %R | 1 | none needed | 3.92× |
| WaveTrend (8/6/4) | 1 | none needed | 3.45× |
| SMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | none needed | 2.68× |
| DEMA 20/50 Cross | 1 | none needed | 2.58× |
| TEMA 20/50 Cross | 1 | none needed | 2.52× |
| Ichimoku TK Cross | 1 | none needed | 2.15× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Toyota, Connors RSI-2 on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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