The best indicator for Steel Dynamics (STLD)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Steel Dynamics (STLD) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Steel Dynamics (STLD) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
TEMA 10/30 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Steel Dynamics (STLD) over ~30.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Steel Dynamics (STLD) — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 17.2% | 0.66 | -47.6% | 58.5% | 53 | 1.7% |
| 2 | Ehlers Reflex ✓ | Weekly | 16.5% | 0.65 | -51.3% | 66.7% | 48 | 1.0% |
| 3 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.63 | -55.9% | 90.3% | 31 | -2.0% |
| 4 | CCI Trend ✓ | Daily | 15.2% | 0.61 | -45.3% | 43.1% | 346 | -0.4% |
| 5 | Cutler's RSI ✓ | Daily | 15.3% | 0.61 | -57.4% | 47.6% | 414 | -0.4% |
| 6 | ROC (14) ✓ | Daily | 15.3% | 0.61 | -57.4% | 47.6% | 414 | -0.4% |
| 7 | CMO (14) ✓ | Daily | 15.3% | 0.61 | -57.4% | 47.6% | 414 | -0.4% |
| 8 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 14.1% | 0.59 | -49.3% | 65.5% | 29 | -1.5% |
| 9 | Know Sure Thing ✓ | Weekly | 13.8% | 0.58 | -56.0% | 70.6% | 34 | -1.7% |
| 10 | FRAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 14.3% | 0.58 | -62.6% | 52.2% | 113 | -1.3% |
| 11 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 13.6% | 0.57 | -50.7% | 46.7% | 351 | -2.0% |
| 12 | WMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.2% | 0.57 | -64.3% | 31.8% | 22 | -2.3% |
| 13 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 13.6% | 0.56 | -60.6% | 43.6% | 390 | -2.0% |
| 14 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 13.0% | 0.55 | -54.3% | 47.0% | 353 | -2.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Steel Dynamics (STLD)
3 of 671 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Steel Dynamics (STLD) outright. Another 347 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 280 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier Stochastic | 1 | 1.94× | 2.66× |
| DEMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | none needed | 2.83× |
| Markov Regime | 1 | none needed | 2.16× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.66× | 2.52× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | — | 1.06× | 2.61× |
| Ehlers Stochastic | — | 1.29× | 2.74× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Steel Dynamics (STLD), TEMA 10/30 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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