The best indicator for Supermicro (SMCI)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Supermicro (SMCI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Supermicro (SMCI) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Intraday Momentum Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Supermicro (SMCI) over ~19.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.1% CAGR.
Supermicro (SMCI) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Supermicro (SMCI) — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 22.2% | 0.72 | -60.9% | 71.9% | 57 | -0.1% |
| 2 | Squeeze Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 19.4% | 0.71 | -40.9% | 43.5% | 46 | -2.7% |
| 3 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | Weekly | 21.5% | 0.68 | -68.2% | 53.8% | 80 | -0.5% |
| 4 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | Weekly | 21.5% | 0.68 | -68.2% | 53.8% | 80 | -0.5% |
| 5 | Aroon ✓ | Weekly | 21.2% | 0.66 | -59.4% | 50.0% | 28 | -0.8% |
| 6 | Aroon Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 21.2% | 0.66 | -59.4% | 50.0% | 28 | -0.8% |
| 7 | Hull MA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 19.3% | 0.65 | -57.9% | 41.5% | 82 | -3.0% |
| 8 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 23.7% | 0.65 | -69.6% | 45.5% | 55 | 1.7% |
| 9 | Triangular Hull MA ✓ | Weekly | 19.7% | 0.65 | -59.0% | 50.0% | 52 | -2.3% |
| 10 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 16.7% | 0.63 | -51.8% | 67.5% | 77 | -5.6% |
| 11 | Hull MA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 18.4% | 0.63 | -70.1% | 53.7% | 54 | -3.7% |
| 12 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 17.5% | 0.62 | -64.3% | 67.5% | 231 | -4.8% |
| 13 | T3 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 17.2% | 0.62 | -58.6% | 27.3% | 22 | -5.1% |
| 14 | LSMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 17.9% | 0.62 | -56.8% | 50.8% | 63 | -4.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Supermicro (SMCI)
6 of 600 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Supermicro (SMCI) outright. Another 89 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 472 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Volume | 1 | 1.2× | 1.71× |
| Liquidity Flow Oscillator | 1 | 1.2× | 1.71× |
| Balance of Power | 1 | none needed | 1.47× |
| Ehlers SuperSmoother | 1 | none needed | 1.47× |
| QQE | 1 | none needed | 1.3× |
| TRIMA 200 Trend | 1 | none needed | 2.36× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Supermicro (SMCI), Intraday Momentum Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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