The best indicator for Supermicro (SMCI)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Supermicro (SMCI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Intraday Momentum Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Supermicro (SMCI) over ~19.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.1% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Supermicro (SMCI) — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 22.2% | 0.72 | -60.9% | 71.9% | 57 | -0.1% |
| 2 | Squeeze Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 19.4% | 0.71 | -40.9% | 43.5% | 46 | -2.7% |
| 3 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | Weekly | 21.5% | 0.68 | -68.2% | 53.8% | 80 | -0.5% |
| 4 | Aroon ✓ | Weekly | 21.2% | 0.66 | -59.4% | 50.0% | 28 | -0.8% |
| 5 | Aroon Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 21.2% | 0.66 | -59.4% | 50.0% | 28 | -0.8% |
| 6 | Hull MA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 19.3% | 0.65 | -57.9% | 41.5% | 82 | -3.0% |
| 7 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 23.7% | 0.65 | -69.6% | 45.5% | 55 | 1.7% |
| 8 | Triangular Hull MA ✓ | Weekly | 19.7% | 0.65 | -59.0% | 50.0% | 52 | -2.3% |
| 9 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 16.7% | 0.63 | -51.8% | 67.5% | 77 | -5.6% |
| 10 | Hull MA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 18.4% | 0.63 | -70.1% | 53.7% | 54 | -3.7% |
| 11 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 17.5% | 0.62 | -64.3% | 67.5% | 231 | -4.8% |
| 12 | T3 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 17.2% | 0.62 | -58.6% | 27.3% | 22 | -5.1% |
| 13 | LSMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 17.9% | 0.62 | -56.8% | 50.8% | 63 | -4.1% |
| 14 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.6 | -35.3% | 53.3% | 107 | -11.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Supermicro (SMCI), Intraday Momentum Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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