The best indicator for Shopify
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Shopify history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Shopify stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Bullish Engulfing
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Shopify over ~11.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 23.1% CAGR.
Shopify on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Daily | 22.8% | 0.96 | -33.5% | 63.4% | 93 | -23.1% |
| 2 | ZLEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 30.9% | 0.95 | -44.0% | 41.4% | 58 | -15.0% |
| 3 | Volatility Regime (VIX-style) ✓ | Daily | 26.9% | 0.95 | -34.9% | 56.2% | 80 | -19.0% |
| 4 | ROC (20) ✓ | Weekly | 38.6% | 0.95 | -49.9% | 64.7% | 17 | -0.4% |
| 5 | Momentum (20) ✓ | Weekly | 38.6% | 0.95 | -49.9% | 64.7% | 17 | -0.4% |
| 6 | Positive Volume Index ✓ | Daily | 36.9% | 0.93 | -76.1% | 38.5% | 26 | -9.0% |
| 7 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Daily | 31.9% | 0.93 | -46.1% | 58.3% | 24 | -14.0% |
| 8 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 36.8% | 0.92 | -40.3% | 70.6% | 17 | -2.2% |
| 9 | ROC (30) ✓ | Weekly | 37.7% | 0.92 | -44.9% | 73.3% | 15 | -1.4% |
| 10 | CMO (30) ✓ | Weekly | 37.7% | 0.92 | -44.9% | 73.3% | 15 | -1.4% |
| 11 | Momentum (30) ✓ | Weekly | 37.7% | 0.92 | -44.9% | 73.3% | 15 | -1.4% |
| 12 | DEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 29.8% | 0.91 | -33.2% | 55.9% | 34 | -9.2% |
| 13 | Hull MA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 28.8% | 0.9 | -45.1% | 36.4% | 55 | -17.1% |
| 14 | CCI (200) ✓ | Daily | 33.8% | 0.89 | -54.1% | 38.5% | 26 | -12.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Shopify
13 of 465 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Shopify outright. Another 86 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 159 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRAMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | 1.16× | 2.61× |
| Markov Regime (Confirmed) | 1 | 2.4× | 3.05× |
| Stochastic | 1 | none needed | 4.35× |
| WaveTrend (8/6/4) | 1 | none needed | 3.29× |
| DeMarker | 1 | none needed | 3.33× |
| Stochastic Momentum Index | 1 | none needed | 4.35× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Shopify, Bullish Engulfing on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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