The best indicator for Shopify
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Shopify history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Bullish Engulfing
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Shopify over ~11.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 23.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Daily | 22.8% | 0.96 | -33.5% | 63.4% | 93 | -23.1% |
| 2 | ZLEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 30.9% | 0.95 | -44.0% | 41.4% | 58 | -15.0% |
| 3 | Volatility Regime (VIX-style) ✓ | Daily | 26.9% | 0.95 | -34.9% | 56.2% | 80 | -19.0% |
| 4 | ROC (20) ✓ | Weekly | 38.6% | 0.95 | -49.9% | 64.7% | 17 | -0.4% |
| 5 | Momentum (20) ✓ | Weekly | 38.6% | 0.95 | -49.9% | 64.7% | 17 | -0.4% |
| 6 | Positive Volume Index ✓ | Daily | 36.9% | 0.93 | -76.1% | 38.5% | 26 | -9.0% |
| 7 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Daily | 31.9% | 0.93 | -46.1% | 58.3% | 24 | -14.0% |
| 8 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 36.8% | 0.92 | -40.3% | 70.6% | 17 | -2.2% |
| 9 | ROC (30) ✓ | Weekly | 37.7% | 0.92 | -44.9% | 73.3% | 15 | -1.4% |
| 10 | CMO (30) ✓ | Weekly | 37.7% | 0.92 | -44.9% | 73.3% | 15 | -1.4% |
| 11 | Momentum (30) ✓ | Weekly | 37.7% | 0.92 | -44.9% | 73.3% | 15 | -1.4% |
| 12 | DEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 29.8% | 0.91 | -33.2% | 55.9% | 34 | -9.2% |
| 13 | Hull MA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 28.8% | 0.9 | -45.1% | 36.4% | 55 | -17.1% |
| 14 | CCI (200) ✓ | Daily | 33.8% | 0.89 | -54.1% | 38.5% | 26 | -12.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Shopify, Bullish Engulfing on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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