The best indicator for Shell
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Shell history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Shell stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Keltner Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Shell over ~42.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 25.8% CAGR.
Shell on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 39.3% | 1.48 | -61.9% | 81.1% | 206 | 25.8% |
| 2 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 47.5% | 1.36 | -61.0% | 77.5% | 334 | 34.1% |
| 3 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 31.3% | 1.3 | -60.0% | 77.3% | 176 | 17.9% |
| 4 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 31.7% | 1.26 | -65.6% | 78.2% | 202 | 18.2% |
| 5 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 34.3% | 1.26 | -62.6% | 80.4% | 163 | 20.9% |
| 6 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 31.7% | 1.26 | -65.6% | 78.2% | 202 | 18.2% |
| 7 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 30.5% | 1.17 | -60.0% | 64.6% | 505 | 17.0% |
| 8 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 29.3% | 1.13 | -50.6% | 66.1% | 478 | 15.8% |
| 9 | Demand Index ✓ | Daily | 37.5% | 1.07 | -65.3% | 65.3% | 606 | 24.0% |
| 10 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 34.8% | 1.07 | -67.0% | 66.5% | 436 | 21.3% |
| 11 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope | Daily | 20.7% | 1.03 | -60.6% | 77.7% | 94 | 7.2% |
| 12 | Lorentzian Classification | Daily | 36.6% | 1.03 | -90.7% | 50.9% | 2173 | 23.1% |
| 13 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 20.9% | 0.88 | -63.7% | 67.2% | 351 | 7.4% |
| 14 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 18.9% | 0.84 | -63.6% | 79.5% | 224 | 5.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Shell
32 of 680 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Shell outright. Another 209 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 181 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| KAMA 200 Trend | 1 | 1.45× | 2.98× |
| Ehlers TrendFlex | 1 | 2.27× | 3.11× |
| ALMA 200 Trend | 1 | 2.96× | 3.11× |
| RSI Trend (>50) | 1 | none needed | 2.76× |
| EMA 8/21 Cross | 1 | none needed | 2.61× |
| SMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | none needed | 2.74× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Shell, Keltner Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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