The best indicator for Opendoor
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Opendoor history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Opendoor stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Keltner 50 (x2.0)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Opendoor over ~6.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 66.5% CAGR.
Opendoor on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keltner 50 (x2.0) ✓ | Daily | 44.9% | 0.84 | -45.0% | 26.9% | 26 | 66.5% |
| 2 | Keltner Breakout ✓ | Daily | 41.8% | 0.81 | -61.5% | 33.3% | 15 | 63.3% |
| 3 | ADX Strong Trend ✓ | Daily | 40.0% | 0.79 | -59.7% | 40.0% | 20 | 61.5% |
| 4 | Vertical Horizontal Filter ✓ | Daily | 39.3% | 0.79 | -45.6% | 50.0% | 40 | 60.8% |
| 5 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 54.0% | 0.91 | -64.7% | 46.2% | 13 | 75.6% |
| 6 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Daily | 39.5% | 0.78 | -69.6% | 33.3% | 33 | 61.1% |
| 7 | Supertrend (20,3) ✓ | Daily | 39.5% | 0.78 | -71.3% | 44.4% | 18 | 61.0% |
| 8 | KAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 38.3% | 0.77 | -64.6% | 14.3% | 35 | 59.8% |
| 9 | STARC Bands ✓ | Daily | 35.8% | 0.75 | -63.7% | 35.3% | 17 | 57.3% |
| 10 | Acceleration Bands ✓ | Daily | 34.5% | 0.74 | -64.6% | 48.9% | 47 | 56.0% |
| 11 | TEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 35.5% | 0.74 | -64.6% | 29.4% | 17 | 57.0% |
| 12 | RSI (50) ✓ | Daily | 35.3% | 0.74 | -66.5% | 26.7% | 30 | 56.8% |
| 13 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 30.6% | 0.72 | -87.8% | 57.1% | 21 | 52.1% |
| 14 | Keltner 20 Break ✓ | Daily | 27.6% | 0.72 | -31.1% | 46.9% | 32 | 49.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Opendoor
100 of 297 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Opendoor outright. Another 60 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 83 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorentzian Classification | 1 | 1.34× | 2.36× |
| Fibonacci Pivots | 1 | 2.35× | 2.71× |
| RSI Trend (>50) | 1 | none needed | 1.27× |
| EMA 8/21 Cross | 1 | none needed | 1.48× |
| Supertrend Fast (10,2) | 1 | none needed | 1.4× |
| Coppock Curve | 1 | none needed | 1.43× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Opendoor, Keltner 50 (x2.0) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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