The best indicator for Nvidia (NVDA)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nvidia (NVDA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Nvidia (NVDA) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Chaikin Oscillator
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nvidia (NVDA) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.9% CAGR.
Nvidia (NVDA) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Nvidia (NVDA) — trailing buy-and-hold by 10.2% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | 4-Hour | 54.4% | 1.73 | -25.6% | 56.9% | 72 | -0.9% |
| 2 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | 4-Hour | 54.4% | 1.73 | -25.6% | 56.9% | 72 | -0.9% |
| 3 | HMA 9/21 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 45.3% | 1.56 | -28.7% | 55.0% | 111 | -9.9% |
| 4 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | 4-Hour | 42.2% | 1.49 | -22.0% | 83.3% | 24 | -13.1% |
| 5 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | 4-Hour | 45.5% | 1.41 | -29.8% | 53.7% | 136 | -9.8% |
| 6 | Morning Star ✓ | 4-Hour | 24.1% | 1.36 | -25.9% | 62.5% | 72 | -31.2% |
| 7 | QQE ✓ | 4-Hour | 53.1% | 1.33 | -33.4% | 46.5% | 101 | -2.2% |
| 8 | Center of Gravity ✓ | 4-Hour | 39.2% | 1.31 | -19.7% | 47.7% | 193 | -16.1% |
| 9 | Chande Forecast Osc. ✓ | 4-Hour | 38.5% | 1.31 | -19.8% | 50.0% | 184 | -16.7% |
| 10 | VuManChu Cipher B ✓ | 4-Hour | 25.7% | 1.29 | -13.3% | 58.1% | 93 | -29.6% |
| 11 | Delta Volume (CVD proxy) ✓ | 4-Hour | 37.2% | 1.29 | -34.4% | 55.4% | 92 | -18.1% |
| 12 | Gaussian Channel ✓ | 4-Hour | 34.6% | 1.28 | -19.7% | 44.9% | 107 | -20.7% |
| 13 | Ehlers Cyber Cycle ✓ | 4-Hour | 36.5% | 1.27 | -27.8% | 47.0% | 166 | -18.8% |
| 14 | Twiggs Money Flow ✓ | 4-Hour | 37.1% | 1.26 | -30.9% | 47.4% | 95 | -18.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Nvidia (NVDA)
56 of 1327 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Nvidia (NVDA) outright. Another 485 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 262 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime | 2 | 1.12× | 5.26× |
| Bollinger Mean-Reversion | 2 | none needed | 12.5× |
| Stochastic Momentum Index | 2 | none needed | 8.47× |
| QQE | 2 | none needed | 2.57× |
| MA Envelope | 2 | none needed | 5.84× |
| VWAP Bands | 2 | none needed | 10.31× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Nvidia (NVDA), Chaikin Oscillator on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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