The best indicator for Nvidia (NVDA)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nvidia (NVDA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Nvidia (NVDA) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
B-Xtrender
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nvidia (NVDA) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 9.9% CAGR.
Nvidia (NVDA) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Nvidia (NVDA) — trailing buy-and-hold by 10.2% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B-Xtrender ✓ | 4-Hour | 36.3% | 1.73 | -15.3% | 48.8% | 121 | -9.9% |
| 2 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 35.9% | 1.4 | -31.2% | 60.0% | 30 | -10.3% |
| 3 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | 4-Hour | 38.7% | 1.39 | -22.0% | 84.0% | 25 | -7.5% |
| 4 | Markov Regime ✓ | 4-Hour | 47.9% | 1.39 | -44.4% | 50.9% | 106 | 1.7% |
| 5 | VuManChu Cipher B ✓ | 4-Hour | 28.1% | 1.38 | -16.0% | 57.0% | 100 | -18.2% |
| 6 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | 4-Hour | 39.9% | 1.36 | -33.5% | 54.4% | 79 | -6.3% |
| 7 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | 4-Hour | 39.9% | 1.36 | -33.5% | 54.4% | 79 | -6.3% |
| 8 | Keltner 50 (x2.0) ✓ | 4-Hour | 27.9% | 1.36 | -14.9% | 38.6% | 44 | -18.3% |
| 9 | QQE MOD ✓ | 4-Hour | 28.8% | 1.35 | -17.4% | 50.0% | 70 | -17.4% |
| 10 | HMA 9/21 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 36.3% | 1.32 | -28.5% | 55.0% | 111 | -9.9% |
| 11 | TSI (13,7) | 4-Hour | 38.4% | 1.32 | -23.1% | 40.5% | 42 | -7.8% |
| 12 | Chande Forecast Osc. ✓ | 4-Hour | 37.4% | 1.29 | -19.8% | 48.0% | 179 | -8.8% |
| 13 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | 4-Hour | 39.5% | 1.29 | -29.8% | 53.2% | 141 | -6.7% |
| 14 | Trade Volume Index | 4-Hour | 37.3% | 1.29 | -26.6% | 47.1% | 102 | -9.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Nvidia (NVDA)
56 of 1327 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Nvidia (NVDA) outright. Another 485 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 262 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime | 2 | 1.12× | 5.26× |
| Bollinger Mean-Reversion | 2 | none needed | 12.5× |
| Stochastic Momentum Index | 2 | none needed | 8.47× |
| QQE | 2 | none needed | 2.57× |
| MA Envelope | 2 | none needed | 5.84× |
| VWAP Bands | 2 | none needed | 10.31× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Nvidia (NVDA), B-Xtrender on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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