The best indicator for Microsoft (MSFT)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Microsoft (MSFT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Microsoft (MSFT) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
DMI Direction
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Microsoft (MSFT) over ~40.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.4% CAGR.
Microsoft (MSFT) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Microsoft (MSFT) — trailing buy-and-hold by 11.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DMI Direction ✓ | Weekly | 18.5% | 0.82 | -55.8% | 44.4% | 81 | -6.4% |
| 2 | SMC: Break of Structure ✓ | Weekly | 19.3% | 0.82 | -61.7% | 76.5% | 17 | -5.6% |
| 3 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 23.0% | 0.81 | -69.4% | 42.9% | 21 | -2.0% |
| 4 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Weekly | 18.5% | 0.81 | -50.6% | 80.0% | 15 | -6.4% |
| 5 | RSI (30) ✓ | Weekly | 18.9% | 0.81 | -57.4% | 35.2% | 54 | -6.0% |
| 6 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 16.1% | 0.8 | -45.0% | 49.1% | 53 | -8.8% |
| 7 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 18.9% | 0.8 | -64.8% | 44.0% | 50 | -6.0% |
| 8 | Donchian 10 Break ✓ | Weekly | 17.9% | 0.8 | -52.4% | 60.0% | 35 | -7.0% |
| 9 | Advance Trend Pressure ✓ | Weekly | 17.8% | 0.8 | -60.5% | 51.3% | 113 | -7.1% |
| 10 | RSI (25) ✓ | Weekly | 18.2% | 0.79 | -62.1% | 44.1% | 68 | -6.6% |
| 11 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Weekly | 18.0% | 0.79 | -58.1% | 57.1% | 21 | -6.8% |
| 12 | Pivot Point SuperTrend ✓ | Weekly | 18.8% | 0.79 | -63.2% | 60.0% | 15 | -6.1% |
| 13 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 18.1% | 0.78 | -60.1% | 57.9% | 19 | -6.7% |
| 14 | Bollinger Squeeze ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.78 | -43.3% | 54.8% | 31 | -12.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Microsoft (MSFT)
0 of 1338 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Microsoft (MSFT) outright. Another 340 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 268 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | — | 1.36× | 2.62× |
| VIDYA 30 Trend | — | 1.43× | 3.45× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.67× | 3.27× |
| EMA 100 Trend | — | 1.67× | 3.8× |
| Disparity (100) | — | 1.67× | 3.8× |
| RSI (50) | — | 1.7× | 4.04× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Microsoft (MSFT), DMI Direction on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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