The best indicator for Microsoft (MSFT)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Microsoft (MSFT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Microsoft (MSFT) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
SMC: Break of Structure
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Microsoft (MSFT) over ~40.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.1% CAGR.
Microsoft (MSFT) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Microsoft (MSFT) — trailing buy-and-hold by 11.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMC: Break of Structure ✓ | Weekly | 19.4% | 0.82 | -61.7% | 75.0% | 16 | -5.1% |
| 2 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Weekly | 16.2% | 0.81 | -40.7% | 51.0% | 49 | -8.3% |
| 3 | DMI Direction ✓ | Weekly | 18.4% | 0.81 | -55.9% | 45.9% | 85 | -6.0% |
| 4 | RSI (30) ✓ | Weekly | 18.4% | 0.8 | -60.9% | 33.3% | 54 | -6.0% |
| 5 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 22.6% | 0.8 | -69.4% | 42.9% | 21 | -2.0% |
| 6 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 18.4% | 0.79 | -60.1% | 57.9% | 19 | -6.0% |
| 7 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 18.6% | 0.79 | -65.6% | 43.1% | 51 | -5.8% |
| 8 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Weekly | 18.1% | 0.79 | -58.6% | 57.1% | 21 | -6.3% |
| 9 | ADXR ✓ | Weekly | 15.7% | 0.78 | -46.4% | 52.7% | 55 | -8.7% |
| 10 | Vegas Tunnel ✓ | Weekly | 17.1% | 0.78 | -73.0% | 42.4% | 33 | -7.3% |
| 11 | RSI (25) ✓ | Weekly | 17.9% | 0.78 | -64.7% | 42.6% | 68 | -6.5% |
| 12 | Advance Trend Pressure ✓ | Weekly | 17.3% | 0.78 | -60.5% | 49.6% | 113 | -7.2% |
| 13 | Relative Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 18.1% | 0.77 | -69.1% | 45.0% | 40 | -6.3% |
| 14 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 17.6% | 0.77 | -59.0% | 57.7% | 26 | -6.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Microsoft (MSFT)
0 of 1338 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Microsoft (MSFT) outright. Another 340 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 268 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | — | 1.36× | 2.62× |
| VIDYA 30 Trend | — | 1.43× | 3.45× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.67× | 3.27× |
| EMA 100 Trend | — | 1.67× | 3.8× |
| Disparity (100) | — | 1.67× | 3.8× |
| RSI (50) | — | 1.7× | 4.04× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Microsoft (MSFT), SMC: Break of Structure on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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