The best indicator for Merck & Co. (MRK)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Merck & Co. (MRK) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Merck & Co. (MRK) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Supertrend (14,4)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Merck & Co. (MRK) over ~65.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR.
Merck & Co. (MRK) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Merck & Co. (MRK) — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Weekly | 10.9% | 0.66 | -44.0% | 72.7% | 22 | -1.9% |
| 2 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.8% | 0.64 | -57.4% | 50.0% | 38 | -2.0% |
| 3 | TRIX (9) ✓ | Weekly | 10.8% | 0.64 | -46.1% | 54.4% | 57 | -2.0% |
| 4 | EMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 11.1% | 0.64 | -59.2% | 52.6% | 38 | -1.8% |
| 5 | TRIX (21) ✓ | Weekly | 11.1% | 0.64 | -49.8% | 65.2% | 23 | -1.7% |
| 6 | CCI (200) ✓ | Daily | 10.2% | 0.63 | -58.7% | 28.8% | 191 | -2.5% |
| 7 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 10.6% | 0.63 | -52.2% | 48.3% | 58 | -2.2% |
| 8 | TRIX (15) ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.63 | -43.0% | 63.3% | 30 | -2.1% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.3% | 0.62 | -56.4% | 56.4% | 39 | -2.4% |
| 10 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 11.0% | 0.62 | -44.5% | 65.2% | 23 | -1.9% |
| 11 | WMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.62 | -50.1% | 52.8% | 36 | -2.3% |
| 12 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.62 | -59.2% | 51.9% | 54 | -2.5% |
| 13 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.62 | -51.7% | 51.3% | 39 | -2.3% |
| 14 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.62 | -51.0% | 48.3% | 58 | -2.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Merck & Co. (MRK)
3 of 731 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Merck & Co. (MRK) outright. Another 171 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 257 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intraday Momentum Index | 1 | none needed | 2.47× |
| T3 10/40 Cross | 1 | none needed | 2.79× |
| Predictive Ranges | 1 | none needed | 2.91× |
| EMA 200 Trend | — | 1.39× | 2.38× |
| VIDYA 30 Trend | — | 1.4× | 2.64× |
| CCI (200) | — | 1.41× | 2.47× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Merck & Co. (MRK), Supertrend (14,4) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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