The best indicator for Five Below
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Five Below history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Five Below stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Supertrend (14,4)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Five Below over ~13.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.2% CAGR.
Five Below on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Daily | 19.2% | 0.73 | -55.5% | 50.0% | 26 | 4.2% |
| 2 | Ulcer Index ✓ | Weekly | 14.7% | 0.72 | -40.2% | 47.1% | 17 | -0.1% |
| 3 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Daily | 18.3% | 0.7 | -55.3% | 56.8% | 44 | 3.2% |
| 4 | Supertrend (7,3) ✓ | Daily | 18.0% | 0.7 | -58.4% | 56.8% | 44 | 3.0% |
| 5 | Ichimoku (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 16.8% | 0.68 | -43.4% | 56.7% | 30 | 2.0% |
| 6 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) ✓ | Weekly | 18.1% | 0.67 | -45.5% | 54.6% | 97 | 3.4% |
| 7 | Price Momentum Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 13.9% | 0.65 | -36.9% | 53.3% | 15 | -0.8% |
| 8 | Supertrend Fast (10,2) ✓ | Weekly | 16.6% | 0.64 | -46.0% | 50.0% | 16 | 1.9% |
| 9 | Ehlers Relative Vigor ✓ | Weekly | 14.8% | 0.64 | -48.8% | 55.4% | 56 | 0.1% |
| 10 | Supertrend (10,2) ✓ | Weekly | 16.6% | 0.64 | -46.0% | 50.0% | 16 | 1.9% |
| 11 | Volatility Stop (ATR) ✓ | Weekly | 15.3% | 0.63 | -46.1% | 55.6% | 18 | 0.6% |
| 12 | FRAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 15.4% | 0.62 | -48.7% | 44.5% | 346 | 0.3% |
| 13 | T3 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.0% | 0.62 | -40.2% | 41.2% | 17 | -1.1% |
| 14 | Supertrend (7,2) ✓ | Weekly | 15.9% | 0.62 | -45.4% | 50.0% | 16 | 1.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Five Below
269 of 487 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Five Below outright. Another 13 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 8 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate of Change | 2 | none needed | 3.33× |
| EMA-10 Trend | 2 | none needed | 2.28× |
| Momentum | 2 | none needed | 1.97× |
| Price Volume Trend | 2 | none needed | 2.09× |
| T3 (Tillson) | 2 | none needed | 2.98× |
| Arnaud Legoux MA | 2 | none needed | 2.76× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Five Below, Supertrend (14,4) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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