The best indicator for Five Below
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Five Below history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Supertrend (14,4)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Five Below over ~13.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.2% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Daily | 19.2% | 0.73 | -55.5% | 50.0% | 26 | 4.2% |
| 2 | Ulcer Index ✓ | Weekly | 14.7% | 0.72 | -40.2% | 47.1% | 17 | -0.1% |
| 3 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Daily | 18.3% | 0.7 | -55.3% | 56.8% | 44 | 3.2% |
| 4 | Supertrend (7,3) ✓ | Daily | 18.0% | 0.7 | -58.4% | 56.8% | 44 | 3.0% |
| 5 | Ichimoku (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 16.8% | 0.68 | -43.4% | 56.7% | 30 | 2.0% |
| 6 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) ✓ | Weekly | 18.1% | 0.67 | -45.5% | 54.6% | 97 | 3.4% |
| 7 | Price Momentum Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 13.9% | 0.65 | -36.9% | 53.3% | 15 | -0.8% |
| 8 | Supertrend Fast (10,2) ✓ | Weekly | 16.6% | 0.64 | -46.0% | 50.0% | 16 | 1.9% |
| 9 | Ehlers Relative Vigor ✓ | Weekly | 14.8% | 0.64 | -48.8% | 55.4% | 56 | 0.1% |
| 10 | Supertrend (10,2) ✓ | Weekly | 16.6% | 0.64 | -46.0% | 50.0% | 16 | 1.9% |
| 11 | Volatility Stop (ATR) ✓ | Weekly | 15.3% | 0.63 | -46.1% | 55.6% | 18 | 0.6% |
| 12 | FRAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 15.4% | 0.62 | -48.7% | 44.5% | 346 | 0.3% |
| 13 | T3 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.0% | 0.62 | -40.2% | 41.2% | 17 | -1.1% |
| 14 | Supertrend (7,2) ✓ | Weekly | 15.9% | 0.62 | -45.4% | 50.0% | 16 | 1.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Five Below, Supertrend (14,4) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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