The best indicator for Carvana (CVNA)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Carvana (CVNA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Carvana (CVNA) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Momentum
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Carvana (CVNA) over ~9.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 64.1% CAGR.
Carvana (CVNA) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Carvana (CVNA) — beating buy-and-hold by 30.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Momentum ✓ | Daily | 109.5% | 1.39 | -64.7% | 47.7% | 132 | 64.1% |
| 2 | ROC (10) ✓ | Daily | 109.5% | 1.39 | -64.7% | 47.7% | 132 | 64.1% |
| 3 | Momentum (10) ✓ | Daily | 109.5% | 1.39 | -64.7% | 47.7% | 132 | 64.1% |
| 4 | Williams %R (21) ✓ | Daily | 100.4% | 1.34 | -66.1% | 32.2% | 87 | 55.0% |
| 5 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Daily | 108.8% | 1.33 | -71.3% | 44.2% | 86 | 63.4% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 95.7% | 1.3 | -66.2% | 34.4% | 93 | 50.3% |
| 7 | Pretty Good Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 93.2% | 1.27 | -63.2% | 42.1% | 121 | 47.8% |
| 8 | Disparity Index ✓ | Daily | 91.5% | 1.26 | -63.2% | 41.8% | 122 | 46.1% |
| 9 | DPO (10) ✓ | Daily | 92.4% | 1.26 | -69.8% | 35.9% | 92 | 47.0% |
| 10 | Triangular MA ✓ | Daily | 89.3% | 1.24 | -68.9% | 39.2% | 102 | 43.9% |
| 11 | Ichimoku (fast) ✓ | Daily | 87.0% | 1.24 | -67.3% | 50.0% | 90 | 41.6% |
| 12 | Force Index ✓ | Daily | 90.1% | 1.22 | -80.6% | 39.6% | 106 | 44.7% |
| 13 | Heikin-Ashi Trend ✓ | Weekly | 93.7% | 1.22 | -73.3% | 56.1% | 66 | 48.7% |
| 14 | Aroon ✓ | Daily | 86.6% | 1.21 | -70.5% | 47.1% | 68 | 41.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Carvana (CVNA)
10 of 428 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Carvana (CVNA) outright. Another 240 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 150 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.42× | 2.14× |
| Q-Stick | 1 | 1.83× | 3.03× |
| Momentum | 1 | none needed | 2.98× |
| On-Balance Volume | 1 | none needed | 2.07× |
| Force Index | 1 | none needed | 3.04× |
| Klinger Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 2.49× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Carvana (CVNA), Momentum on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More stock
Get alerted when Carvana’s signal flips
We track Carvana daily. Its backtested best indicator, Momentum (Daily), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.