The best indicator for CF Industries (CF)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real CF Industries (CF) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where CF Industries (CF) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Trend Intensity Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for CF Industries (CF) over ~20.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.3% CAGR.
CF Industries (CF) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for CF Industries (CF) — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trend Intensity Index ✓ | Daily | 23.2% | 0.82 | -37.1% | 63.3% | 30 | 2.3% |
| 2 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Daily | 22.7% | 0.82 | -36.3% | 56.9% | 51 | 1.8% |
| 3 | Aroon ✓ | Weekly | 21.7% | 0.8 | -43.8% | 48.4% | 31 | 1.5% |
| 4 | Aroon Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 21.7% | 0.8 | -43.8% | 48.4% | 31 | 1.5% |
| 5 | VWAP Trend ✓ | Weekly | 21.3% | 0.79 | -39.4% | 54.4% | 57 | 1.2% |
| 6 | Disparity (20) ✓ | Weekly | 21.1% | 0.79 | -43.4% | 47.4% | 57 | 1.0% |
| 7 | SMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 22.1% | 0.78 | -52.2% | 56.2% | 32 | 1.2% |
| 8 | ROC (60) ✓ | Daily | 21.9% | 0.78 | -45.9% | 42.2% | 128 | 1.1% |
| 9 | Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 20.9% | 0.78 | -49.2% | 44.2% | 77 | 0.8% |
| 10 | CCI Trend ✓ | Weekly | 20.9% | 0.78 | -40.6% | 52.2% | 46 | 0.8% |
| 11 | Inverse Fisher RSI ✓ | Weekly | 20.9% | 0.78 | -49.0% | 56.7% | 30 | 0.7% |
| 12 | Premier Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 20.8% | 0.78 | -49.4% | 61.8% | 34 | 0.7% |
| 13 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Weekly | 20.8% | 0.78 | -45.7% | 41.4% | 29 | 0.6% |
| 14 | ROC (10) ✓ | Weekly | 20.9% | 0.78 | -49.2% | 44.2% | 77 | 0.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on CF Industries (CF)
17 of 607 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on CF Industries (CF) outright. Another 282 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 238 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.01× | 2.14× |
| Ehlers Reflex | 1 | 1.61× | 4.32× |
| Random Walk Index | 1 | 2.01× | 3.15× |
| Random Walk Index | 1 | 2.01× | 3.15× |
| Aroon | 1 | 2.23× | 2.9× |
| Aroon Oscillator | 1 | 2.23× | 2.9× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For CF Industries (CF), Trend Intensity Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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